The Nutshell 1/4: Should the Raptors try to win this year

A Dino Dilemma by Gabriel Ibrahim

The Raptors have been tearing it up since the Rudy Gay trade.

Last night, the Toronto Raptors saw their five game win streak come to an end. Facing the world champions in Miami, the Raptors lead by as many as eight points in the third quarter before the Heat launched a furious rally(in typical Heat fashion). In the final quarter, Toronto hung right with Miami until Kyle Lowry missed a decent look from three at the buzzer as the Raps fell by 3. Dwyane Casey’s offense looked great all night against the Heat. Demar DeRozan finished with 26 points on 11/19 shooting, Lowry contributed with 14 points and nine assists, and the big man duo of Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas added 17 points each. Their backcourt scoring tested Miami’s depth and the frontcourt provided an array of matchup problems. Johnson’s constant movement tired out Chris Bosh and the fatigue showed up on offense for Bosh, as he shot just two for nine from the field. Valanciunas was able to stay near the rim and score after the Raptors’ pick-and-roll broke down Miami’s defense. Defensively, the Raptors played up to their ability and gave Miami a lot of trouble. They held the Heat to just three 3-pointers and allowed only three players to score in double digits. While the loss stings, it and the five-game win streak that preceded indicate a change in attitude of the franchise. They expect to win games and think they can compete with anyone in the NBA. Despite the success, some pundits still call for the Raps to focus on the future and trade Lowry or DeRozan for draft picks. But, the team’s progression since the Rudy Gay trade and their chances in a weak Eastern Conference provide enough reason to stand pat this season.

Since Masai Ujiri of Nazareth traded away Rudy Gay for four rotation players on December 10th, the team has played with a flow and rhythm that it lacked all year. Gay’s departure has opened up Dwyane Casey’s offense to the ball movement it needs to succeed. The team passes the ball 30 more times a game without Gay with more assists and less turnovers. Demar Derozan has continued to exceed expectations in terms of scoring, but the real improvements have come from Lowry and Ross.

Kyle Lowry has taken a giant step forward lately/

Lowry has improved in every part of his game since the Raptors traded Gay. According to NBA.com, Lowry is averaging two assists more per game(7.9 to 10) while also scoring about four points more(14.6 to 18.35). While Lowry’s usage has gone up, his turnovers have actually decreased slightly and he’s rocking 6.45 assist-to-turnover ratio in that span, which leads the league. Terrence Ross took over the starter forward spot for Gay and has stepped up into his role well. He’s played almost 15 more minutes per game since the trade and improved the team’s spacing and defense greatly. The trade itself brought in three useful rotation players and both of Toronto’s big men have stepped up in Gay’s absence.

The improvements from Lowry and the rest of the team can continue and they have the depth to stay healthy for 82 games. But then again, this franchise could be set for the next decade with a top pick in June’s draft.

Masai Ujiri might have to change his vision for the franchise considering recent success

Ujiri and everyone around the league knows you need a superstar to win a championship. The fastest way to get a star is in the draft and being bad gives you the best chance to grab one. Realistically though, the Raptors shouldn’t trade Lowry or any pieces for future assets just yet. They won’t be bad enough to get a top pick unless they demolish the team. They are four games up in the Awful  Atlantic division and could keep that lead pretty easily. More importantly, making the playoffs would be huge for Toronto. Just getting to the playoffs would create a buzz in the city and advancing, which seems likely right now, would mark the second playoff series win in franchise history. Playoff experience can be more valuable than draft picks for a franchise, look at the Indiana Pacers. In three years, the franchise went from the eight seed to title contenders without a top 10 pick. The Raptors clearly lack a star like Paul George, but if anyone can repeat Indiana’s success, it’s Ujiri. So while tanking seems like a good plan, making the playoffs would mean much more for Toronto.

The More You Know

• The Warriors are playing so well they’re actually making highlights by accident.  They have won nine straight, including five straight road games. The Splash Bros and Co made a similar run last season, going undefeated on a seven game road swing. They face the Bucks and Nets next to finish the trip so repeating the task is firmly in view. Some are saying the Dubs could be title contenders this year.
• Dennis Rodman assembled a team to play an exhibition in North Korea, which includes Doug Christie and Kenny Anderson. The team is actually pretty balanced and fearless considering the leader of North Korea may have fed his uncle to dogs.
• Rudy Gay is shooting almost 50% since joining Sacramento and he’s scoring a little more too (19.3 to 19.5). Gay has done this all while taking almost four less shots, but the Kings continue to struggle (5-9 since trade and 10-22 overall). I called Gay’s decline before this year and his efficiency jump after the trade, making Gay involved in my only two correct predictions this year.

Gif of the Night

A decade of Chris Kaman’s face courtesy of Sbnation. Most interesting face in the NBA in my opinion. He goes through so many changes: zombie, grudge rocker, and extra normal white dude.

League Pass Primer

A slow NBA night makes the Wolves-76ers the LP game of the Night

• LP Game of the Night Minnesota @ Philadelphia 7 pm Philly looks to extend their season-long five game winning streak against the Wolves. The 76ers look like they are figuring out things defensively, allowing 102.7 during the streak as opposed to 110.6. If you root for a contender, keep an eye on Evan Turner(23 ppg during streak) and Thaddeus Young(26.4) as your team might make a move for either one. The T-Wolves look to bounce back from a heartbreaker against OKC, in which Kevin Love missed three straight free throws that would have won the game. But, the great white hope has averaged 31.7 points while shooting 54.1 percent over the last six games.
• Atlanta @ Brooklyn 7 pm These two are heading in different directions since losing their star big men last month. Brooklyn’s won their last two including a big win against the Thunder, while Atlanta lost three of their last four. Deron Willams has strung two 25+ point games together for the first time all year, but he’s questionable with an ankle injury. The Hawks are struggling on offense without Al Horford, scoring three less points a game(102.6 to 99.2) and shooting worse (46.1 to 40.2).
• Orlando @ Los Angeles Clippers 10:30 pm The Clippers got took 116-92 against the Spurs without Chris Paul, who will sit out six weeks with a shoulder injury. They fell behind 70-35 in the first half in that game and will definitely miss one of the most important players in the league. Orlando has lost three straight overall and nine straight to the Western Conference.
• Watch the National Championship game 8:30 pm Slow night of games combined with struggling teams means you should watch FSU and Auburn play on ESPN. War Damn Eagle.

The Nutshell 12/29: Injuries, injuries, and more injuries

Black Friday by Gabriel Ibrahim

Russell Westbrook will miss the next six weeks after another knee surgery

The basketball gods have not shown kindness to the NBA this season. Injuries have already plagued many teams and taken over the headlines across the league. Derrick Rose’s return was cut short with a knee injury just a month into the season. A broken foot put a halt to Brook Lopez’s rise to stardom. Kobe Bryant came back briefly before a bum knee knocked him out until Feburary. Rajon Rondo has yet to play this year and Marc Gasol is missing significant time for Memphis. Rookies CJ McCollum and Nerlens Noel have only watched games from the sidelines with Noel likely out the whole year.

Then, friday happened. The Oklahoma City Thunder announced that Russell Westbrook would miss at least 6 weeks after knee surgery. Westbrook will be sidelined until after the all-star break and the Thunder are left scrambling until then. Just hours after hearing of Westbrook’s injury, fans learned that Al Horford torn his pectoral and is out indefinitely. First off, let’s just think about how much both of these injuries suck. Westbrook ranks among the league’s most exciting players, even after his knee injury last season. He was averaging 21/6/7 in 25 games this year and looked like the Westbrook of old. I mean check out this game winner against Golden State.  I think there are maybe 10 players in the league who could complete that play, and Russ does it with the more passion than any of them. The surgery marks the third time Westbrook has gone under in seven months. Despite his successful comeback this year, people around the NBA are beginning to wonder if he’ll be able to retain his explosiveness. Others question if can ever stay healthy considering his style of play. All of which, while warranted criticism, makes every NBA fan frown. As for Horford, his recovery time is going to be about 4 months, bringing him back just as the regular season winds down. In 2011, he suffered the same injury on the other side of his body and played just 11 games for the Hawks. This time, the injury comes just as Atlanta seemed to be gelling into a Eastern Conference contender. Without him, the Hawks fall right back into the muddled pack of bad teams in the East.

The question for both these teams is “Now what?”. The Thunder have the option to stand pat and wait out the six weeks. Reggie Jackson’s emergence in his first season of major minutes is an encouraging sign for the team.

Reggie Jackson will need to step up for the Thunder while Westbrook heals

He averages 12 points, 3 assists, and 4 rebounds in 25 minutes a game. He needs to shoot a bit better as he’s hit just 30% of his shots in his past three games. But, Jackson can at least stabilize the starting five while Westbrook heals. Where the injury really decimates the Thunder is their backcourt depth. With Jackson starting, Jeremy Lamb and Derek Fisher (yes, he is still playing) will have to pick up the slack off the bench. Lamb has already seen his minutes increase this season and has played pretty well in those minutes (9/1/2 in 21 minutes). Derek Fisher is a corpse that the Thunder medical staff electrocutes every time he needs to play. While the Thunder usually opt against roster moves in season, they will need to consider making one this time. The West is just too strong for OKC to stay on top with Bernie Derek Fisher playing major minutes. They could try trading for a point guard like Toronto’s Kyle Lowry. The Thunder could offer their own first round pick, Dallas’s protected first rounder, and the trade exception they got from Kevin Martin’s departure for Lowry. While that’s a lot to give up, Lowry provides a great holdover until Russ gets back and could allow the Thunder to limit Westbrook’s minutes. Otherwise as Yannis Koutroupis of Hoopsworld points out, the Thunder could sign someone like Shannon Brown or they could wait to see how the team responds without Westbrook. The Hawks don’t have as many options, but realistically could be okay without Horford. They’re currently 3rd in the East and will most likely make the playoffs even without their star player.

The Hawks will have to stay afloat and hope Horford can get healthy for the playoffs

Jeff Teague has seemingly turn the corner toward becoming an elite point guard. Paul Milsap and Kyle Korver are enjoying productive season and should help keep the team afloat this season. The real decision for the Hawks will come in early April when Horford could come back. If Horford is ready in four months, he could suit up for the playoffs. But, Atlanta will have to decide whether to go for a miracle this season or hold Horford out to protect their future. Whatever either team decides to do, these injuries have put a damper on great development for each franchise.

The More You Know 

• Last night, Chris Bosh nailed a deep three with 0.5 seconds left in Portland to give the Heat their Eastern-Conference leading 10th close game victory. ESPN stats and info says it was the seventh game-tying or game-winning three with 10 seconds or less left of his career on 10 such attempts. NBA.com stats points out that Bosh is just 3 of 16 on similar shots inside the three point line. After the shot, Lebron and DWade pampered and caped their fellow superstar.
• John Wall notched his sixth consecutive of 20+ points with a 20 spot in last night’s win against Detroit. Wall has improved his scoring this entire season, but his impressive assist numbers have been more important for the Wiz. Washington is 8-2 when they rack up at least 24 assists like they did last night with Wall contributing 11.
• Al Jefferson put a 24 points and 22 rebounds in the Bobcats’ loss to the Hawks last night. It was just the 7th 20-20 game in Bobcat history, just for reference Kevin Love has put up 15 20-20 games in the past 3 years.

Gif of the night

DOUBLE ALLEY OPP! That’s a Giannis Antetokounmpo-Khris Middleton give and go in midair. The Greek Freak has responded well since gaining starter minutes in Milwaukee, putting up highlights like this nightly. He’s been one of the few bright spots for a very bad Bucks team. Thanks to reddit user /u/kylemramos for the gif.

League Pass Primer

The great point guard battle between Curry and Irving makes Cleveland-Golden State the League Pass game of the night

• LP Game of the Night: Golden State @ Cleveland 6pm Each team is heading opposite directions with Golden State riding a four-game win streak and Cleveland having lost its last four. But, both Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving have played great as of late. Irving has averaged 28.7 points a game while shooting 41% from 3 in his last nine, including 32 points on 22 shots in his last game. Curry has struggled to shot recently (31% in his last four), but he’s developed his game in other areas. He’s totaled 44 assists and 28 rebounds over the last four contests while notching his third career triple double(14/13/16) against Phoenix on friday.
• Atlanta @ Orlando 6 pm The Hawks responded well in their first game with Al Horford, beating Charlotte 118-166 in overtime. Paul Milsap(33) and Lou Williams(28) recorded season high point totals. They’re going for their 12th straight win over Orlando, but could have trouble with the Magic’s backcourt without Horford. Look for Nikola Vucevic to rack rebounds.
• Sacramento @ San Antonio 7 pm While a mismatch on paper, the Kings have a shot in this one. They just took down the defending champion Heat and Boogie Cousins has been on a tear lately. He’s put up a double-double in nine of his last 12 and has averaged 25 points and 12 rebounds in the last five games. The Spurs, meanwhile, have surprisingly struggled at home this season losing four of their last seven games. But, San Antonio has yet to lose to a team under .500.
• Philadelphia @ Los Angeles 9:30 pm Honestly, you probably don’t want to watch this one. The Lakers have lost four straight at home, while Phila has been the league’s worst road team. Pau Gasol and Chris Kaman are game-time decisions as is Evan Turner for the 76ers.
• Not on League Pass: Houston @ Oklahoma City 7 pm NBAtv 

The Nutshell 12/27: Can Portland win the NBA title

Blaze it Up by Arian Tadayon

The Blazers have shocked the NBA so far, but can they keep it up?

For those that missed last night’s 116-112 overtime thriller between the Blazers and Clippers, I suggest you watch the highlights and pray to your deity that NBAtv airs it again. The game was an absolute battle. Every time you thought the Blazers were going to blow the door off the game, the Clippers battled back. With the Blazers up 91-80 with 7 minutes left, it appeared as though the Clippers just didn’t have enough, coming off a back to back that ended late the night before. But, Chris Paul went on to further established himself as the best point guard in the NBA (sorry Tony Parker). CP3 scored the Clippers’ last 8 points in the 4th including a fade away baseline jumper over Wes Matthews with 9 seconds left that put the Clippers up 3. The Clippers elected not to foul and play the free throw game, which left the door wide open for a Nicolas Batum 3-pointer to tie it at 101 with 5 seconds left. The game went into overtime after Paul missed a relatively open shot at the end of regulation. In OT, it was the LaMarcus Aldridge show. The league’s best power forward scored 7 in the extra period, including an and-1 that fouled DeAndre Jordan out of the game.  With Jordan on the sideline, Blake Griffin struggled to slow down Aldridge as he finished the night with 32 points and 10 boards and the Blazers came away with their league leading 24th win.

Last night’s game exemplified just how clutch the Blazers have been this season. This is in large part due to the fact that their starting 5. The Lilliard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez lineup has so many viable options to get the much needed bucket in crunch time, that defenses can’t try and lock in on certain players. Any type of help defense, the Blazers can easily find the open man and make you pay by knocking down a big shot. The Blazers starting five has a league leading and astonishing +123 plus-minus, scoring 1.17 points per possession. Now lets take a look at the clutch statistics of the Blazers, which our friends at www.82games.com define as the 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, and neither team ahead by more than 5 points. Damian Lillard, who is the team’s go to in the end of games, is shooting an astounding effective field goal percentage of 61.4% on his jumpers in crunch time. To put that in perspective for you, Lebron James’ effective field goal percentage is 59.4% on his jumpers and Kevin Durant is shooting just 27.9%. Now let’s look at the other options in case a guy like CP3 is locking Lillard down, Batum is shooting an effective field goal % of 71.4% on his jumpers in crunch time, that is just absurd! Add that option to Wes Matthews who is shooting 55.6% on his jumpers in crunch time and you have an unstoppable force. On top of great shooting at the end of games, Robin Lopez is crashing for offensive boards as good as anyone in the league, giving the team second chance shots that can really demoralize the opponent.

Now here’s the $88,888 question, can they win the title? Critics of this team will quickly shoot down this notion and tell you that this team is bound to cool off and settle into the middle tier of teams in the west. But I’m going to tell you why that is not going to be the case. The Blazers will continue winning games and can contend for the title because they have balance and flexibility in their roster. On offense, the Blazers will knock down shots, penetrate to the lane, crash the boards, and feed the ball to their MVP candidate LaMarcus Aldridge whose turn around jumper ranks among the league’s best moves . On defense, this team has flexibility because they are able to put Batum, the team’s best defender, on the opposing team’s 1, 2, 3, or 4, and Matthews has become very good at slowing the other team’s point guard when Lillard is overmatched. The main knock on this team is their bench, which is scoring 23.9 points per game (27th). Although their bench is scoring in the bottom tier of teams, the Blazers have quite a few quality players on their bench that are more than capable of coming into the game and giving great energy, which is all that they need with their top notch starting five. Don’t forget about CJ McCollum, the team’s first round pick. He’ll make an impact later on in the season once he returns from injury and Terry Stotts eases him into the lineup.The Blazer’s next test comes Saturday night, when the Miami Heat come to Rip City. The Blazers split the season series with Heat last year 1-1, and will look to supplant themselves in the conversation of the best team in the NBA with a win against the defending champs.

The more you know 

• Terrible injury news for two young stars today. Russell Westbrook will be out until after the all star break. Westbrook never fully healed from surgery this offseason and required surgery on the same knee today. Al Horford is out indefinitely with a torn pectoral. This just sucks.
• James Harden went 2 for 9 from the field yesterday against the Grizzlies. But, he ended up with 27 points. He scored 22 points at the line on 25 free throw attempts as the Rockets won 100-92. He’s the first player to score 25 or more points with just two field goals since Charles Barkley did it in 1995.
• Ricky Rubio is on pace to be the worst shooter in modern NBA history. Only two players since 1979 have logged 5,000 minutes while shooting under 38% from the field (Eddie Griffin and Daequan Cook). Rubio will log 5,000 by season’s end if healthy and is shooting 35.6% for his career, worse than either Cook and Griffin. Thanks reddit u/scooper1030 for pointing that out.
• Stephen Curry is apparently really important to Golden State. John Schuhman of NBA.com gathered up the stats and found that Curry is the most important offensive player in the NBA. Golden State scores at a league-high rate with Curry on the floor and struggle to a league-worst rate with him on the bench, 7.2 points worse than the Milwaukee Bucks.

Gif of the night

This is our second great technical foul gif in the last two nights. I think Iggy’s reaction is a little funnier because he managed to hold back his laughter.

League Pass Preview

• Oklahoma City @ Charlotte 7 pm Life without Russell Westbrook for the Thunder. Let me pour a 40 out for Russ with my favorite play of his.As for the game, watch Kemba Walker if you haven’t yet this season. He leads the league in passes per game and is growing into a very good young point guard. And you know, Kevin Durant.
• Detroit @ Orlando 7 pm The Magic limp into this one. They’ve lost five straight and eight of their last nine. Orlando continues to scrap and work hard. They almost came back from 26 to beat the Knicks before losing 103-98. Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris are fun young guns to watch and you should really check out Aaron Affalo because he might be traded to a contender later in the year. On the other side, the Pistons try to stay hot on the road, winning seven of their last eight on the road. Brandon Jennings has been excelling outside of Detroit, scoring 20.5 a game on the road. If recent history is any indication, Josh Smith should have a big game as well. He averages 20 points a game against the Magic.
• Milwaukee @ Brooklyn, Toronto @ New York 7:30pm The two worst matchups of the night happen in the same city, how convenient. The Nets have lost 4 straight, heard boo birds at home on Christmas(!), and Jason Kidd is losing his job slowly. At least, they play the NBA’s worst team in Milwaukee. But if Larry Sanders’s return from a bar fight injury can spark the Bucks, it could mean the end of the Jason Kidd era in Brooklyn. The Knicks, for their part, suffered the worst home Christmas day loss in NBA history last time out. James Dolan announced today that the Knicks aren’t looking at trades or a coaching change anytime soon. Much to the chagrin of fans, he didn’t mention any intention to sell the team. No Carmelo means Toronto(11-15) will probably keep their slim lead in the awful Atlantic division. Andrea Bargnani plays the team that drafted him first overall for the first time, which is moderately interesting.
• Denver @ New Orleans 8 pm The Nuggets have lost four straight and can’t score at the moment. They’ve scored 100 points twice in their last 10 and averaged a league-worst 90.6 points since December 7^th. Ty Lawson has struggled mightily since a hamstring injury earlier this month. Kenneth Faried has missed games with injury, but comes back tonight. On the other side, the Pelicans can’t stop anybody, allowing 105.8 points a game this month. Anthony Davis seems to be getting readjusted after missing just seven games with a broken hand (wait, what???). His presence should help New Orleans’s defense get back on track.
• Los Angeles @ Utah 9 pm The Lakers played valiantly on Christmas day, leading the defending champions by 10 points before losing by six. Pau Gasol, who played great in that game, will miss tonight’s game with an upper respiratory infection. Watch out for Nick Young, though. Swaggy P is shooting 50% from three over his last six and it’s Swaggy P so at any point he make the most amazing shot you’ve ever seen or get stabbed by Kobe Bryant for missing a crazy shot. The Jazz go as Trey Burke goes. He’s been splendid so far, but he is inconsistent.
• Miami @ Sacramento 10 pm The Heat play the first game of a back-to-back tonight so don’t expect Dwyane Wade to play. Ray Allen and Michael Beasley will try to pick up the scoring load if Wade is sidelined as they have all year. While this is a mismatch on paper, three of Miami’s four have come against teams under .500 and the Kings could pull this one out. The Heat don’t really have an answer for Boogie Cousins so anticipate a big game from him.
• Phoenix @ Golden State 10:30 pm
  

  Stephen Curry and Warriors going up against Eric Bledsoe’s Suns is tonight’s best matchup.

  The last game of the night is the best game of the night. The Suns are on a tear lately, winning seven of their last eight to take over second place in the Pacific Division. They beat the Warriors on December 15^th. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson going up against Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic is tantalizing, especially after the four of them combined for 94 points last time. This one will go down to the wire, maybe even overtime. 

The One-Year Plan: Sacramento Kings

The Kings have some of the league’s best fans who have suffered through one of the worst half-decades in team history

For the last 5 years, I’ve asked Santa for three things: a date with Selena Gomez, the ability to apparate, and a NBA team to run. This year like the last 4, Santa didn’t come through. I’m sure the big man has his doubts about my qualifications to GM a franchise so I’m going to prove to him that I got what it takes. One-by-one, I’m going to create a plan for each NBA team in distress. The plans are for the next calendar year and hopefully put the team in the best position for long term success. As for the other two wishes, I got no excuse for Santa Claus. He’s gotta make it happen at some point. 

The Kings of Sacramento have been anything but royal this last half-decade. They haven’t played a postseason game since 2006. They haven’t finished above .500 since that season and the team won 35 games or more just once in that span(a 38-44 campaign in 2007). Since firing Rick Adelman before the 2006-07 season, the Kings employed six head coaches including the immortal Kenny Natt who went 11-47 in 2008. But, things are looking up in a few ways for Kings fans. After almost moving to Seattle last season, the NBA owners voted to keep the team in Sacramento. Following the vote, the Maloof brothers finally sold the team to Vivek Ranadive.

Vivek Ranadive saved the Kings from moving to Seattle, now he’s working on building a winning franchise

Vivek already has plans in place for a new stadium and is trying to change the culture in SacTown. He brought in Pete D’Alessandro, a former disciple of the Masai-ah from Denver, as the Kings GM. Mike Malone took over the head coaching position. In 2012, NBA GMs voted Malone as the league’s best head coach. D’Alessandro promised moves and delivered almost immediately by getting Greivis Vasquez in a sign-and-trade for Tyreke Evans. He then picked up Luc Mbah a Moute for two second round picks before the season. He then turned those two into Derrick Williams, an elite player in college struggling to find a spot in the NBA. D’Alessandro dealt with his former boss in Denver and brought Rudy Gay over from Toronto in a seven player deal. Despite all the changes and new faces, the Kings look pretty much the same. They’re second-to-last in the West at 8-19, have the league’s second worst defense(thank God for the Knicks), and team chemistry is at an all time low. In fact, the only stat they lead the league in is calling each other out. I expect even more big changes this year for Sacramento, so without futher ado here’s the plan for the Kings to have long term potential by next Christmas.

Step 1: Be terrible in 2013. The only thing the Kings have succeeded in this season is losing. So just keep on, keeping on Sacramento. Realistically, the Kings have no shot at a playoff spot in the incredibly strong Western Conference. As much as the league wants to get rid of tanking, it’s a great strategy to get superstars and the Kings don’t need to do anything to implement it. Also, the Kings need to be truly awful to ensure they get their pick. Back in 2011, Sacramento traded a first round pick in one of the best drafts in recent memory for JJ Hickson. The pick is top 12 protected, which means the Kings need to finish in the league’s bottom 10 to ensure the pick.

Step 2: Figure out if you can build around Boogie. If you’re going to be awful for a season, don’t waste the entire year. The Kings need to experiment with this roster and find out who they’re keeping for the long term. Demarcus Cousins is the most secure King as he just signed a 4-year, $62 million extension. He’s posting career highs in shooting percentage(49.5%), assists(3.1), and points(22.5). The 23-year old is developing into an offensive load in the post and could be turn into the league’s best offensive center by year’s end.

Is this really the Kings’ franchise cornerstone? In short, yes.

But, Boogie doesn’t seem very interested in protecting the rim or playing defense in general. He allows opponents to shoot 53% at the rim, which puts him in the bottom 20 of that category according to NBA.com. He leads the league in both personal fouls per game and technical fouls. Cousins’s reputation as a headcase is probably contributing to the tech numbers and will only worsen if he doesn’t turn it around. He also seems like an awful person to play with. So is this a guy you want to build your franchise around? Honestly, Boogie is the Kings’ best option right now so the answer is yes. As for everyone else, The Kings probably only want to keep Isaiah Thomas(depending on how much he’ll cost this summer) and Ben McLemore. Derrick Williams is an interesting prospect, but outside of one 31-point performance, he’s been uninspiring.

Step 3: Solve the Rudy Gay problem. The Kings are stuck with Rudy Gay, whether they want him or not. He’s under contract for the next two years, raking in $37.1 million in that time or just a shade under the entire GDP of Tuvalu. Gay has suffered a rough couple of years. The explosion of advanced stats and his overall decline have landed him on his third team in two seasons. Gay bottomed out in Toronto this season and his efficiency dropped to an all time low. But as Tom Ziller pointed out when the trade happened, Gay’s efficiency fell as his usage rate went up in Memphis and Toronto. The Kings, already loaded with high usage players, might provide the right situation for Gay. They need to use Gay’s isolation talents later in possessions, rather than relying on him to initiate the offense. He should get the ball as a second option if the first offensive set breaks down. So far with the Kings, Gay has taken five less shots a game and is shooting 46%, up from 39% in Toronto. Maybe, Rudy Gay will finally become an efficient player in Sacramento. No really, stop laughing.

Step 4: Preach patience and shed salary. The Kings have just over $7 million coming off the books this summer. But, Boogie’s raise pretty much wipes that out. Rudy Gay is still under contract through next season. Carl Landry and Jason Thompson come back at the same price for the next four years. Travis Outlaw enters the last year of his deal as does Marcus Thornton. Isaiah Thomas will get a huge pay raise this summer, whether in Sacramento or not. All-in-all, the Kings won’t have much cap flexibility until next summer. So, they have to do what bad teams have done since the dawn of time: tell their fans to be patience. Success doesn’t happen overnight, unless you’re the Heat or Kim Kardashian. They can look at trade possibilities for Thomas if they want as much cap room as possible. But, I don’t think they can get the right value for him.

Boogie and Kings may not be happy now, but the future could be bright in SacTown

The Kings are a mess right now. But, D’Alessandro and Malone can sort through the rubble of offensive wing players to create a functional NBA team. This summer, they need to find a rim-protecting big man to pair with Boogie and a veteran presence in the locker room. Emeka Okafor and Jordan Hill are the two free agents that most fit that description. This time next year, I expect the Kings will still be struggling to win games. The contracts they’re under just make a one-year rebuild impossible. But if they get improvements from Rudy Gay, the Kings can flip Gay’s expiring contract for assets or picks. Overall, the Kings need two more years to reach their goals. Drafting a star this June and finding help defensively this summer can move them forward. With this management group in place and the salary cap space coming in 2015, make sure you use up all your Kings jokes now.

The return of the 2-guard

The development of young guns like Klay Thompson and improvements by Monta Ellis and other vets have the SG position on the rise.

In 2011, just three shooting guards (Kobe Bryant, Monta Ellis, Joe Johnson) finished in the top 20 of scoring. The rise of ball-handling “point” forwards and emergence of scoring point guards diminished the role of shooting guards. Why draw up plays for your 2 when your point guard and small forward could both score and create more efficiently?  It seemed the decline in production and talent at the position would continue as the league struggled to find young 2-guards. Kobe was (and is) at the end of his career, Dwyane Wade struggled with injuries and age, James Harden had yet to emerge, and the rest of the pack lacked star potential. Shortly after the lockout ended, Bill Simmons wrote “since Jordan’s heyday, there were always enough quality 2-guards to go around; that’s not the case anymore.” He broke down the position like this:

FRANCHISE GUYS	ALL-STARS	POTENTIAL ALL-STAR	SCORERS ONLY	SURE-THING STARTERS	EFFICIENT VETERANS	UP-AND-COMERS	POSSIBLE UPSIDE GUYS
Dwyane Wade	Joe Johnson	Eric Gordon	Monta Ellis	James Harden	Ray Allen	Demar DeRozan	Evan Turner
Kobe Bryant	Manu Ginobili		Kevin Martin	Wesley Matthews	Jason Richardson	Nick Young	Marcus Thorton
				Arron Affalo	Jason Terry	OJ Mayo	JR Smith
							Gordon Heyward
							Klay Thompson

Not a very pretty picture for the spot that housed Jordan, Clyde Drexler, and Reggie Miller. But in the last two years, the off guard position has seen a revival. Last season, six of the top 25 NBA scorers played at the 2. This year has brought even more production from shooting guards. 7 of the top 20 scorers are off guards, despite the fact that Kobe has yet to play and Dwyane Wade has seen his minutes go down. So what happened in the last two years to create this spike in production? Let’s use Simmons’s chart to explain it.

FRANCHISE GUYS	ALL-STARS	POTENTIAL ALL-STARS	SCORERS ONLY	SURE-THING STARTERS	EFFICIENT VETERANS	UP-AND-COMERS	UPSIDE GUYS
Dwyane Wade	Arron Affalo	Bradley Beal	JR Smith	Wesley Matthews	Ray Allen	Gordon Hayward	Victor Oladipo
Kobe Bryant	Monta Ellis	Klay Thompson	Kevin Martin		Manu Ginobili	Lance Stephenson	Ben McLemore
James Harden			Nick Young		Joe Johnson	Jimmy Butler
			Demar DeRozan		OJ Mayo
					Jamal Crawford

Players who switch roles are italicized and players who were added to the chart are in bold. The most important change in the chart comes in the first column. James Harden’s leap from potential star to budding superstar has given Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant a heir.

James Harden is the heir apparent to Kobe and Wade.

Wade is playing efficiently thus far in 2013. He’s posted the best shooting percentage of his career, while scoring 20+ points in seven of his last eight games. But, Wade has already sat out three games (probably just resting, but still) and is playing the second lowest minutes per game of his career. Kobe isn’t Kobe anymore and his Achilles injury makes me worried he’ll be a shell of what he was last season. But if anyone can come back from that injury, it’s Kobe and I think he will. When he comes back, expect him to put up a lot of shots and points as he gets closer to the all-time scoring record. Neither player will play much longer so Harden’s arrival is a massive boost to the position. Harden still needs to work on his defense (a lot) to sustain the title, but his offensive play and leadership last season make him the franchise player that the position desperately needed.

Last season saw four other off-guards step up in addition to Harden. JR Smith took home the NBA’s Sixth man of the year last season. He still took a lot of shots, ranging amazing to atrocities against the game, but he made plays for a Knicks team that needed them. Smith showed that he could live his wild life off the court while remaining competent on the court. Then this happened:  He failed to shoot 40% from the field the rest of the playoffs. Smith missed the first five games this year due a suspension and has struggled mightily after knee surgery. So he may fall off the list as the year progresses, but for now JR is a competent scorer. Jamal Crawford could’ve won the sixth man award from his performance last year. He scored almost 15 points a game in 26 minutes and shot the 4th highest shooting percentage of his career. Unlike JR Smith, Crawford has played better this season. He’s shooting better(45.5%, up from 43.8%), making threes more often(2.2 a game, 39.8%), and ranks 6th in the NBA on pull-up shot efficiency. He’ll play less minutes this year because JJ Redick has contributed this year for the Clips. This may make him less valuable during the regular season, but the rest might help the 33-year old stay fresh and healthy for the playoffs. Jimmy Butler and Lance Stephenson both announced themselves during the playoffs last year. Both showed flashes of their potential during the regular season and contributed mainly in small, defensive roles. Butler’s Game 1 performance against the Heat (21 points, 14 rebounds, played entire game) solidified his status as an up-and-comer. Stephenson also had 20 point games in last year’s playoffs series against the Knicks and the Heat. Both have seen more time this season and have each improved.

A slew of shooting guards outside of Butler and Stephenson have progressed this year. Monta Ellis’s improvement is probably the most surprising. Mr. Have it all has gotten better in every aspect of his game and eliminated shots that made his game inefficient. Monta leads the league in drives and points off drives and he’s doing much of it on pick-and-rolls. He also moved closer to the basket this season, taking 62.4% of his shots from within 16 ft as opposed to 53.7% last season. Ellis is just scoring, he’s dishing out 6 assists a game. He’s leading the Mavs’ resurgence this season and it looks like Monta has finally found the perfect team (check out this article by Tom Ley for more on Monta).

Arron Afflalo has been playing at a all-star level this year.

Another veteran 2-guard is reaching new heights this year.  Arron Afflalo saw his role increased by the Magic this year and has responded with the best season of his career so far. The 28-year old currently has career highs in minutes(36.8), field goal attempts(15.3), 3pt attempts(5.2), 3pt percentage (50%!!) rebounds(4.7), and finally points(21.7). He’s been at an all-star level this season for Orlando, but he still might get traded this year. The Magic might see an opportunity to snag draft picks by trading Afflalo.

Around the league, shooting guards are contributing in a big way so far. Bradley Beal is maturing into a bright, young star. Demar DeRozan has scored almost at will and shows signs of growth in every facet of his game. The two off guards taken in the top 5, Victor Oladipo and Ben McLemore, have impressed many thus far. Both have fantastic dunks this season that you should really watch if you haven’t yet (Oladipo over the Hawks and McLemore from the free throw line). Wesley Matthews stepped his game this season, Gordon Hayward will improve his shooting in search of a big contract, and Ray Allen is excelling in his role this season. Specialists like JJ Redick and Kyle Korver impact their teams so much that they’ve earned extra time. So top to bottom, the shooting guard position has added another superstar, potential stars, and plenty of depth. The great drought of 2 guards might finally be coming to an end and one of the NBA’s premier positions is back.

The Nutshell 11/27: Anthony Davis has made the leap

Anthony Davis might be the NBA’s next great power forward

When the New Orleans Pelicans play, you can’t miss Anthony Davis. Last night against Golden State, he picked up his fourth foul with 9:48 left in the 4th quarter. He returned with 6:48 left and simply took over the game. He tied the game at 93 with 3:21 left and racked up 7 points and 3 rebounds in the final minutes. With 1:27 remaining, Davis made a play that really defines his game. After a Warriors timeout, Klay Thompson missed a 14-foot jumper and rebound went right to Davis. He gave the ball up to Tyreke Evans, sprinted out ahead of all his teammates, and reached the paint before most of the Warriors could get in position. Evans drove to the hoop and missed the layup, a normal occurrence for him this season. Davis was in perfect position though and slammed home the rebound.

On the last possession, Jrue Holiday passed to a open Eric Gordon on the wing rather Davis, who was open at the free throw line. Gordon missed the shot and the Pelicans fell to 6-8 on the season. In foul trouble for most of the night, Davis took just 9 shots in 30 minutes. But, he drained 6 of them and finished with 14 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks. He picked 7 of those points in the last 4 minutes of the game. More importantly, Davis showed last night why many think he’s made the proverbial leap. He has improved defensively, after impressing last year on that side of the ball. He only trails Roy “The Scarecrow” Hibbert (it’ll catch on, trust me) in blocks per game and averages 1.7 steals a game, which is top 20 in the NBA and 8th best among forwards.

Davis’s defense has gotten even better from last season

He allows opponents to shoot just 42.5% at the rim, 5th best among players who face 5 shots at the rim a game. Davis also does a great job of using his long arms to eliminate passing and can effect shots by players of all sizes. His lankiness and quickness allow him to cover every player and every spot on the floor. He is shooting up the ranks of the NBA’s most versatile defenders. Along with his fantastic defense, Davis also rebounds like a monster. He averages 10.6 rebounds a game on 15.5 rebound opportunities, the 6th best rebounding percentage among players averaging 9 rebounds. He always seems to have good position and has a knack for knowing where shots will go. Despite his lack of girth at 220 pounds, Davis rebounds well when challenged by opponents. He ranks 4th in league with 4.8 contested rebounds a game.

While impressive, we knew of Davis’s defense and rebounding skills heading into the season. His offensive maturity from last year is what has raised eyebrows around the league. Davis has acted as the catalyst for New Orleans offense. He averages 1.09 points per possession, 3rd best among Pelicans playing 30% of the time. He has shot 49.7% from the field, not a particularly great number considering 62% of his shots come from within 8 feet. But, Davis really impacts the team’s ball movement. When he is in the game, New Orleans runs its entire offense off Davis’s picks, which are some of the best in the league. His picks are only surpassed by the rolls he makes off those screens. Davis cuts right through the middle of the defense off every pick and forces the defense to collapse on him or give up an easy dunk. Even if the roll is shut down, his picks allow the rest of the offense to flow. When he sits, the offense slows to halt as far as ball movement.

Davis has trouble creating his own shot and needs to work on his post game to become a truly dominant big man, but his progress this season suggest he can improve in those areas. All signs in this young season point to the Brow becoming a superstar. His defense and rebounding already make him one of the league’s most versatile players, but his offense is what will make him one of the league’s best power forwards.

The more you know:

• Chris Paul has my imaginary vote for MVP right now. He generates 37.4 points per game off his assists and averages 19.3 points himself, meaning he is responsible for nearly 60 points a game BY HIMSELF. His assist average of 12.5 puts him almost 4 assists better than anyone in the league. He also leads the league in touches this season. What I’m trying to say is that CP3 is basically the entire Clippers team right now and deserves consideration for MVP despite Lebron’s fantastic year so far.
• Kevin Love is just the perfect white guy. He leads the NBA in rebounds and rebounding chances, despite playing almost exclusively below the rim. He just knows where to be, He’s smart  saavy a gym rat any number of the adjectives that analysts use to describe white players. He also can’t dance. But seriously, check out some of his outlet passes this season. They are a thing of beauty.
  
• Andre Drummond leads the NBA in field goal percentage at 65.9%. He also has the league’s worst free throw percentage for players playing 20 minutes a game at 24%. He has only taken 4 of his 123 field goals from more than 8 feet. I have nothing to add this.

League Pass game of the night:

There are a lot of great games on tonight. Lebron heads back to Cleveland for what should be a blowout at 7:30 on ESPN (making it ineligible for League Pass). Atlanta-Houston and Denver-Minnesota should both be competitive and watching Rubio, Love, and Harden will always entertain. Those two will be at 8 pm. Golden State is always watchable and Monta Ellis has impressed this season for Dallas; they play at 8:30. Portland@Phoenix would probably get the top spot any other night, mainly because I irrationally like teams with twins and the Pacific Northwest.

Timmy and the Spurs head to Oklahoma City for the League Pass game of the night

But the top spot belongs to Oklahoma City and San Antonio. I don’t need to explain this one, just tune in at 8 pm and watch some magnificent basketball.

The Return gone wrong: How the Bulls can move on without Derrick Rose

Derrick Rose is out for the season, again, and the Bulls front office has some questions to answer.

For the second straight year, Derrick Rose will watch a season from the bench. The Bulls announced yesterday that Rose would undergo surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee and will miss the remainder of the season. Obviously, this is a bummer for every NBA fan. Even if you hate the Bulls (like I do), you miss watching Rose get to the bucket and finish. You miss the way he can take over a game. In the bigger picture, you miss the threat that the Bulls with Rose presented the Heat. Now, a Miami-Indiana matchup is all but inevitable in the Eastern Conference Finals.  The series will be fantastic and I’m sure no one will be upset with a third postseason meeting between the two. Yet, Derrick Rose and the Bulls could have beat, or at least challenged, both teams. The Bulls without Rose simply can’t and right now, no other team in the East could either. The Nets and Knicks are competing for the coveted most embarrassing team in New York title. Detroit has yet to figure out how to play basketball together and might never figure it out. Washington and Cleveland seem to have regressed somehow. Toronto’s best player is Rudy Gay. Atlanta, far-and-away the third best team in the East, looks halfway decent and maybe good enough to get the 7 seed out west. The rest of teams are actually trying to lose games or play in Milwaukee. Without Rose, the East sucks even more and the Bulls are right in the middle of the heap.

For basketball fans, Rose’s injury bums you out and will make you look up youtube highlight reels of the young star. For the Bulls front office, the injury set off this reaction.

The team is completely built around a healthy Rose and they don’t have a lot of cap space to make moves to win this year. They do, however, have assets to help the team going forward. First though, Owner Jerry Reisdorf and GM Gar Forman must answer a question that no wants to ask. Is Derrick Rose still your franchise cornerstone? By the time he returns, Rose will have missed basically two entire seasons. He will have a serious injury history with both his knees, including two very arduous and long rehabs. This season, Rose shot a career worst 35.4% from the field and 24% on shots 3-24 ft from the basket. He is one of the league leaders in passes per game at 60.6, but has struggled to create scoring opportunities for his teammates with just 15.2 points created per 48 minutes. The stats from the first 10 games say 2013-14 would be Rose’s worst season yet. But, let’s not overreact to 10 games. He looked rusty and unconditioned from the year off. I think he would have returned to something close to the Derrick Rose of 2010. I still believe he can return to his old self or at least 80% of it after this surgery. He isn’t injury prone based on these two knee injuries because they are different in nature and aren’t due to chronic issues. So the Chicago front office can still consider him a superstar and cornerstone, but should cautiously build around him and always have a backup plan in case his injuries become constant.

The Bulls have three franchise players in Rose, Joakim Noah, and Jimmy Butler. They can move forward with those three and expect to compete for a championship  every year. Butler isn’t due a contract extension until 2016 and his current deal is a great value if he takes a step forward this season. Noah made a big leap last year and is the heart and soul of the franchise, even when Rose is healthy. Outside of those three players, the Bulls’ roster breaks down like this:

Untouchables	Tradable assests	Trade fillers/Pieces	Amnesty him already
Derrick Rose (4 years/$19M a year)	Loul Deng (1/$14M)	Mike Dunleavy (2/$3M)	Carlos Boozer(2/$16M)
Jimmy Butler(3/$2M)	Taj Gibson(4/$8.23M)	Mike James(1/$1.4M)
Joakim Noah(3/$13M)	Kirk Hinrich(1/$4M)	Nazr Mohammad(1/$1.4M)
		Marquis Teague(4/$1.75M)
		Tony Snell(5/$2M)

By far, the two most tradeable assets are Deng’s expiring deal and Taj Gibson. Deng will fetch a good haul for the right time, especially as injuries start taking out key players on contenders. If he has a impressive year, the Bulls could get a late first rounder and young talent like Ed Davis or they could go for an older player on a good deal like Paul Milsap.

Chicago has to trade Loul Deng to move the Franchise forward

Normally, we could fire up the trade machine to create a fake trade that would never happen. But this early in the year, teams aren’t trying to make moves and the landscape will change when they decide they want to so there’s no point in whipping out the TM. Gibson provides teams more value because of his contract, but teams might not want commit to its length. Realistically, Gibson won’t be traded in-season. I think he will be a Bull for the foreseeable future because Chicago needs to put a competitive team on the floor this year and he fits that franchise so well. I doubt the Bulls can trade Boozer because he is making $15 million this year(!!) and $16.8 million next year(!!!!). But, he can still put up 16 points and 8 rebounds a game so exploring trade possibilities involving Boozer will be worth Chicago’s time. He should’ve been amnestied this summer (or the last) and still could be, but I suspect the Bulls will keep him through the contract. Chicago’s historically frugal front office won’t like the idea of paying Boozer $16 mil to play elsewhere. The rest of team isn’t particularly attractive to other teams. The immediate concern for Chicago must be trading Deng. His contract ends after this season and getting something for his massive contract is paramount to their future success.

The most logical move for the Bulls right now is exploring trade options for everyone on their roster, making sure teams know Deng is available, and trying to get enough cap space to sign helpful pieces in the offseason. This season will be another lost year for Chicago and, hopefully for Bulls fans, the front office realizes that. They need to start planning for next season and the future. Tanking would be advisable, but Thibs is too good of a coach and the team is too talented to achieve a good tank. Thibs could rest some of his main guys like Noah and Butler, but he hasn’t exactly managed his players’ minutes in the past. Whatever direction the Bulls decide to go, Derrick Rose’s recovery is the key. If he can come back and be a superstar, the Bulls can ignore everything I just said and compete for a title. If he can’t, the franchise will be in ruin.

Get well soon Derrick. We miss you

Random Thoughts on Game 7

Tonight’s game means everything to the Heat and their future.

So tonight is one of the most important nights in recent NBA history. The Heat, at the center of so many of these nights the past 3 seasons, will take on the suddenly validated Pacers in Game 7 of the Eastern Finals. The game no doubt will be amazingly tense, hard fought, and well played. LeBron James may go off for 50 or Paul George could shut him down and hit a game winner. Dwyane Wade could return to 2008 Dwyane Wade and win his way back into the hearts of Heat fans or Lance Stephenson could prove his status as a “Rucker Park Legend”. My point is enjoy the game as a fan and don’t let the announcers, blown calls, pouting, flopping or the rest of the ridiculous stuff take away from the beautiful basketball we seen in this series. Since 2000, only eight of the 36 conference finals and finals have featured a game 7 and most of them were instant classics (somehow the Heat have been in the last three game 7s in the conference finals). So sit down in front of your tv or at a bar, grab a beer (and heart medication for Heat and Pacers), and enjoy the game.

All that being said, I’m terrified as a Heat fan. I know I will not enjoy the game because I’ll be shouting and throwing things. I believe the Heat will win, but the mere prospect of not getting back to the finals frightens me more than almost anything for various reasons. The game should be great and I figured I’d collect some of my thoughts pregame before I collapse into a heap of emotions:

>>This game means more to the Heat than it does for the Pacers. That’s not to say the Pacers won’t play as hard as they possibly can, but rather there’s more consequences for the Heat should they lose. The Pacers have a golden future ahead of them should they stay healthy. They might come in as the favorites next season even if they lose. On the other hand, the Heat have so much riding on this game. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have not effected this series in any positive way for Miami, the supporting cast outside of Udonis Haslem and Chris Andersen has disappeared, and, for the first time since the Decision, it feels like Lebron is angry with his teammates. Should they lose tonight, Pat Riley (assuming he doesn’t retire) will have a decision on whether to hope this group is enough for one more championship or if he needs to make moves to ensure not only success but also Lebron stays in Miami after 2013. This series has made Wade seem less like a superstar and more like an aging vet. His trade value may not get better than it is this summer and Riley may see a window to bring a replacement in and shed salary without tremendous backlash from fans. The whole bench could change. In short, the entire Heat’s future, and by extension, the NBA’s are on the line tonight. I think the Heat know this and their sense of urgency will be at all time high. (Yeah, this game is going to be a classic)

>>The officiating in this series has been horrendous both ways. Every game has seen the refs ruin three or four key moments by making a bad call. They rob us of a potential great ending by calling a moving screen on Lebron forcing him out of the game with two minutes in game 2. Refs can call moving screens on almost every screen set in the NBA and to call it in that situation was frankly a dick move. They launched a (unsuccessful) Heat comeback in game 4 by calling a shot clock violation after Roy Hibbert clearly hit the rim with a shot.  They stopped a Heat surge with a terrible charge/offensive foul call on Lebron that completely shifted the momentum in game 6. The NBA will have to do a review on these refs and calls because it’s ruining one of the best Conference Finals ever.

>>On the flip side, please everyone stop flopping and whining to refs over EVERY SINGLE CALL. Bitching and moaning to the refs never succeeds in changing a call (Maurice Lucas, the Blazers forward from the Walton era, actually intimidated a referee into changing a call once but that’s different) and it irks me to see this great players ignoring the game to complain. As for flopping, I get it. Anything to win a game and if flopping wins games, anyone would do it. But, come on. Just one game, no flopping, no complaining, just basketball.

>>Go HEAT.

Hurricane Warning: A complete look at the Miami Hurricanes Regional

Bryan Radziewski hopes to lead Miami to a Super Regional berth this weekend in Louisville, KY

In 1972, Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger had just won the Time Person of the Year and would later hear of a break-in at the Watergate Complex. Billie Jean King dominated Bobby Riggs in the ‘Battle of the Sexes’ and Time Warner introduced Home Box Office(HBO). Through the next 7 presidents’ tenures, the end of the Cold War, and every major cultural event in those 41 years, one thing has remained consistent: the Miami Hurricanes in the college baseball tournament. Miami extended their streak of tournament appearances to 41 this season, which ties Johns Hopkins’s NCAA record for most for most consecutive postseason appearances.

The Canes needed a late season push to solidify their spot in the postseason and got it by winning six of their last nine games, including an impressive series win against a ranked Georgia Tech team. Yet, the momentum didn’t carry over into the ACC tournament where Miami got mercy ruled against North Carolina, the sixth ranked team in the nation, and fell 7-1 to number nine North Carolina State. In their final game, Miami picked up a nice 7-0 victory against number 18 Clemson despite missing their head coach Jim Morris, who is suffering from pneumonia and may not be able to coach the Regional as he recovers. The poor showing in ACC tournament, however, did not seem to effect the team’s place in the NCAA tournament. They snagged the number two seed in the Louisville, KY regional, along with host Louisville, third-seed Oklahoma State, and fourth seeded Bowling Green. Miami takes on OSU on Friday at 2:00 pm on ESPN3.

The Hurricanes

While they finished with the same record as last season (36-23), Miami struggled at the plate through most of the season. No hitter in the starting lineup finished with a batting average above .300. They only hit 13 homeruns and David Thompson led the team with a mediocre 42 RBIs, with the next best total belonging to Alex Hernadez with 30. The team’s anemic offense seemed to go as David Thompson went. The freshmen started the season off on a tear with 18 RBIs and two homeruns with a .327 batting average through the first 14 games as the Canes cruised to 12-2 in those games. Thompson cooled off in the middle of the year and fell to seventh in the lineup at one point. Just as the freshmen regressed, Miami dropped five of their next six series. Coach Jim Morris then moved Thompson to third base and shifted Brad Fieger to third. The move seemed to ignite Thompson as he took off the rest of the season and helped Miami pick series wins against ranked Clemson and Georgia Tech. The Canes’ lineup needs to carry the momentum they had at the end of the regular season to give them a chance at advancing.

Miami’s starting pitching, by contrast, performed spectacularly all season. Chris Diaz, Bryan Radziewski, and Andrew Suarez kept Miami alive through their midseason hitting struggles and ensured the team’s spot in the postseason. The trio of lefty weekend starters all ranked in the top 25 of ERA within the ACC—Radziewski 2^nd, Diaz 4^th, Suarez 25^th—and combined for 21 wins. Coming back from a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, Radziewski led the staff and emerged as the team’s ace. The ACC recently named him to the All-ACC team and he is on the 60-player watch list for the Golden Spikes award that goes to the nation’s best player. Diaz, a freshman, came on as the rotation’s most consistent by notching 102.2 innings pitched—3^rd best in the ACC—and delivering 12 quality starts in his last 14 chances. The bullpen, however, has been a different story. Eric Nedeljkovic has been a bright spot. He leads the ACC in saves with 13 and has only allowed 4 runs in 26.1 innings of work. Javi Salas also pitched well for the Canes in 15 appearences, 11 of which were mid-week starts. He finished the season with a 3.10 ERA, which put him at 17^th on the ACC ERA rankings, and remains the Hurricanes’ best option out of the bullpen other than Nedeljkovic. Outside of those two, the bullpen has struggled. AJ Salcines regressed from last season stellar showing, Eric Whaley has come on since struggling through a injury early in the year, and Thomas Woodrey showed flashes of brilliance in limited work. Overall, the bullpen needs to improve if Miami is going to advance out of this regional.

The Opponents

Oklahoma State Cowboys—Oklahoma State comes into the tournament ranked in all four major polls, as high as 12^th in the NCBWA poll. The ‘Boys finished the season second in the Big 12 with a 39-14 record to add another good year in their proud history as the eighth winningest program in NCAA history. Heading into the Big 12 tournament, they had won 15 of their last 19 games. OSU’s lineup has no hitter with a batting average below .277 and each normal starter has at least 16 RBIs, with 1B Tanner Krietemeier leading the pack with 41. Krietemier and RF Zach Fish drive the offense in the middle of the order; both are in the top 10 in the Big 12 in at least four offensive categories. The pitching staff has an ace in the starting rotation and in the bullpen with RHP Jason Hursh and RHP Vince Wheeland. Hursh’s story almost mirrors that Bryan Radziewski. He came off Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss all of last season and pitched excellently for the Cowboys, even getting named to the Golden Spikes Award watch list like Radziewski. He sports a 6-4 record with a 2.78 ERA and is listed as one of the top prospects in the upcoming MLB draft. Wheeland leads the bullpen with 26 appearances and 65.1 innings of work. He has only allowed 17 runs this year and has 1.79 ERA. The College Baseball Hall of Fame named him to the Pitcher of the Year Award watch list. The team fell to a three seed in the regional stage because of three straight losses to TCU, Kansas, and West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament. Expect a battle between like-minded teams on Friday, both the Canes and the Cowboys rely on timely hitting, small ball, and good starting pitching.

Bowling Green—The Falcons landed a four seed in the tournament by taking the MAC championship with 7-0 victory over Ball State. They came into the MAC tournament as the six seed with 24-29 record and 13-14 record in the conference, but beat Northern Illinois and arch rival Toledo three times in the tournament before finishing off the Cinderella story. BGSU lacks power in their lineup with just 14 homeruns on the year. Jeremy Shay and TJ Losby led the offense with a combined batting average of .326, 11 homeruns, and 74 RBIs. The starting pitching staff lacks an ace with no pitcher under 3.50 in ERA and none with a winning record. Ethan McKenney anchors the bullpen with a 1.93 ERA and has only given up 10 earned runs in 46.2 inning pitched. On paper, Bowling Green doesn’t stand a chance in this regional, but they’ve proven in their conference tournament that they can be Cinderfella.

Louisville—The host come in ranked in the top 10 of all four major polls and may have been a top eight seed with a Big East Tournament victory. The Cardinals only lost two series all year en route to 46-10 record, the best in school history, and 20-4 mark in the a relatively weak Big East Conference. They had won 16 straight heading into their conference tournament, yet got upset by eventual champion Connecticut and fell to Rutgers in the conference tournament. Louisville relies on defense and pitching to get victories. The pitching staff has a 2.43 ERA, third best in the nation, and is led by Chad Green and Jeff Thompson. Each own a 2.09 ERA and have combined for 19-4 record in 29 starts. Thompson joined Radziewski and Hursh on the Golden Spikes Award watch list and earned the Big East Pitcher of the Year. The defense only committed 64 errors on the year to help their star pitchers. First-team All Big East selection Nick Burdi highlights the bullpen with 0.88 ERA in 30.2 innings and has only allowed 4 runs this season. 3B Ty Young and DH Jeff Gardner lead the offense. Young tops Louisville in batting average(.372), RBI(55), doubles, triples, and on-base percentage. Gardner brings the power with nine homeruns and a .341 average. This team might be one of the best regional host outside of the top eight and has enough ammo to get to Omaha.

The Bright Side for the Oklahoma City Thunder

Kevin Durant and OKC’s great year ended in disappointment, but hope still prevails for the Thunder

Before the NBA Playoffs began, Kevin Durant graced the cover of Sports Illustrated. The magazine put a quote by Durant on the cover with a photo of him at the free throw line. The quote showed the disgust that Durant has for second place as the second pick in the 2007 NBA draft, the second best high school prospect in his class, and a part of the second best team last season. It ends with Durant professing that he “is done” with second place. This year he didn’t end up in second place, but didn’t even reach the podium as the Thunder bowed out in the second round against Memphis in 5 games.

Despite obvious disappointment, Durant stated that the season, while completely falling short of expectations, was not a waste. In many ways, Durant is correct. Yes, the Thunder looked as close to bad as they could look in the Memphis series. Yes, Oklahoma City General Manager Sam Presti and head coach Scottie Brooks should receive heat for their actions in the preseason and postseason. Yes, it appears the Thunder have digressed from last season. All those concerns have valid roots and we’ll touch on them later, but the 2013 season brought plenty of good for the Thunder. The team captured the top seed in the West for the first time ever and won the most games in franchise history (I know the NBA counts the Seattle years in OKC’s history, but that is bullcrap and we all know it, FOREVER LIVE THE SONICS). Every returning player improved his PER. Durant took two less shots a game while increase his points per average, saw his shooting percentage increase by five, increased his assist average, and improved his defense. Russell Westbrook had similar growth but to a lesser degree as he improved his shooting percentage. We also saw less or at least talked less about instances where Westbrook hindered his team by shooting too much and spoke more of his ability to lead his offense.

Durant’s and Westbrook’s improvements all came as they had to carry a larger share of the team’s burdens due to the trade of James Harden. Serge Ibaka’s emergence on offense and two successful acquisitions by Presti in Reggie Jackson and Kevin Martin also contributed to filling the void left by Harden’s absence. Ibaka transformed himself into a small ball center in the model of Chris Bosh. He took more shots per game and added four more points per game. His biggest improvement was his three-point shooting. He only attempted six three pointers in his first three years in the NBA; this season, he attempted 57 three pointers. Ibaka made an impressive 35 percent of those shots, which beat Bosh’s mark this season by six percentage points. Martin gave OKC 14 points per game after coming over from Houston in the trade and Jackson took over the backup point guard position from Eric Maynor.

The Thunder though fell apart when Westbrook got hurt in the playoffs. Their struggles were visible as the offense fell apart against Memphis as they couldn’t adjust to life without Westbrook and Memphis’s great defense made that life hell for OKC. The tale of the Thunder collapse without Westbrook has been well chronicled and don’t need rehashing (unlike the positives of a great season that nobody seems to acknowledge). Criticism has poured in from every corner mainly on Presti and Brooks. Brooks deserve to be questioned for his inability to create any sort of strategy after Westbrook’s injury and mismanaging a number of situations in the playoffs such as not pressuring ball handlers against Memphis, leaving Durant in for too long against the Rockets, letting Durant play point guard, and allowing Kendrick Perkins to see the floor. The heat on Presti comes from the Harden trade. The decision to trade Harden cost the Thunder a finals trip this season by demolishing the chemistry they built last season. The trio that OKC seemed to build their future around enjoyed playing with each other and truly appeared to loved each other. They wanted to win for each other, they wanted to beat the Heat together. Then, Presti ran a train through their friendship because he was afraid to give up Harden for almost nothing. He could’ve waited and seen what happened this season then make a decision or amnesty Kendrick Perkins to create enough cap space that the tax would not be crippling. He could’ve afforded Harden anyway by amnestying the basically useless Perkins—I’m not a fan of his—and filling out the team with minimum veterans and rookies like the Miami Heat have.

So the Front Office probably cost the Thunder a finals run this year and a big three that would rival any in the NBA including the one on South Beach, but the future is still shining bright as long as Presti gets his mojo back. He can start by making a move he should have before last season: Amnesty Kendrick Perkins. Perkins’s performance in last year’s finals was atrocious and showed that he would no longer be valuable against teams that play small ball. This season, he declined in every major statistical category except assists and on defense. In the playoffs, he finished with a -0.11 PER to become the first player ever to finish the playoffs with a negative PER while playing 200+ minutes. To reiterate, he had THE WORST POSTSEASON EVER by that measure. Perkins will make 8 million next year and 9 million the following and Presti traded Harden because he cost too much. The move would be a year too late, but nonetheless necessary to provide some cap flexibility.

If they amnesty Perkins, the Thunder will have about 62 million in salary among nine players. The salary cap is projected to be about 69 million with the luxury tax at 84.4 million. With that 22 million in space before the tax, Presti needs use his draft picks efficiently and sign a swingman or big man to replace Martin and Perkins. The Thunder own their pick, number 28, and the Raptors’ pick should it fall outside of the top 3 in the lottery. The Raptors pick is hard to project because the lottery will decide who will be there for OKC, but if UCLA swingman Shabazz Muhammad falls to that pick, he could make sense in Oklahoma City. Muhammad can drive, spot up from three, and post up on smaller players, much like James Harden can. At 28, Presti should look at Center Jeff Withey from Kansas. Withey can run the floor, play the pick-and-roll game, and defends better than any other center in the draft. In free agency, the Thunder will have about 5 million in cap space and a 3 million in the taxpayer’s mid-level exception to fill out the roster. They need grab a bench scorer and some are available this offseason. OJ Mayo and JR Smith fit the bill, but might price themselves out of OKC’s market. Marco Bellinelli is a more realistic target and showed that he can score when given the opportunity this postseason. The Thunder will also look for some size after letting Perkins go. JJ Hickson makes sense, but again could be out of their price range. Brenden Wright, who averaged 8.5 points and 4.1 boards, fits for the Thunder this offseason.

The Thunder Front Office failed this season and smothered the team’s chance at a title this year. Their coach failed them in the playoffs. They need to make moves to get back to title contender status. But, the future in OKC will always be bright so long as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook don a Thunder uniform.