The Nutshell 12/27: Can Portland win the NBA title

Blaze it Up by Arian Tadayon

The Blazers have shocked the NBA so far, but can they keep it up?

For those that missed last night’s 116-112 overtime thriller between the Blazers and Clippers, I suggest you watch the highlights and pray to your deity that NBAtv airs it again. The game was an absolute battle. Every time you thought the Blazers were going to blow the door off the game, the Clippers battled back. With the Blazers up 91-80 with 7 minutes left, it appeared as though the Clippers just didn’t have enough, coming off a back to back that ended late the night before. But, Chris Paul went on to further established himself as the best point guard in the NBA (sorry Tony Parker). CP3 scored the Clippers’ last 8 points in the 4th including a fade away baseline jumper over Wes Matthews with 9 seconds left that put the Clippers up 3. The Clippers elected not to foul and play the free throw game, which left the door wide open for a Nicolas Batum 3-pointer to tie it at 101 with 5 seconds left. The game went into overtime after Paul missed a relatively open shot at the end of regulation. In OT, it was the LaMarcus Aldridge show. The league’s best power forward scored 7 in the extra period, including an and-1 that fouled DeAndre Jordan out of the game.  With Jordan on the sideline, Blake Griffin struggled to slow down Aldridge as he finished the night with 32 points and 10 boards and the Blazers came away with their league leading 24th win.

Last night’s game exemplified just how clutch the Blazers have been this season. This is in large part due to the fact that their starting 5. The Lilliard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez lineup has so many viable options to get the much needed bucket in crunch time, that defenses can’t try and lock in on certain players. Any type of help defense, the Blazers can easily find the open man and make you pay by knocking down a big shot. The Blazers starting five has a league leading and astonishing +123 plus-minus, scoring 1.17 points per possession. Now lets take a look at the clutch statistics of the Blazers, which our friends at www.82games.com define as the 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, and neither team ahead by more than 5 points. Damian Lillard, who is the team’s go to in the end of games, is shooting an astounding effective field goal percentage of 61.4% on his jumpers in crunch time. To put that in perspective for you, Lebron James’ effective field goal percentage is 59.4% on his jumpers and Kevin Durant is shooting just 27.9%. Now let’s look at the other options in case a guy like CP3 is locking Lillard down, Batum is shooting an effective field goal % of 71.4% on his jumpers in crunch time, that is just absurd! Add that option to Wes Matthews who is shooting 55.6% on his jumpers in crunch time and you have an unstoppable force. On top of great shooting at the end of games, Robin Lopez is crashing for offensive boards as good as anyone in the league, giving the team second chance shots that can really demoralize the opponent.

Now here’s the $88,888 question, can they win the title? Critics of this team will quickly shoot down this notion and tell you that this team is bound to cool off and settle into the middle tier of teams in the west. But I’m going to tell you why that is not going to be the case. The Blazers will continue winning games and can contend for the title because they have balance and flexibility in their roster. On offense, the Blazers will knock down shots, penetrate to the lane, crash the boards, and feed the ball to their MVP candidate LaMarcus Aldridge whose turn around jumper ranks among the league’s best moves . On defense, this team has flexibility because they are able to put Batum, the team’s best defender, on the opposing team’s 1, 2, 3, or 4, and Matthews has become very good at slowing the other team’s point guard when Lillard is overmatched. The main knock on this team is their bench, which is scoring 23.9 points per game (27th). Although their bench is scoring in the bottom tier of teams, the Blazers have quite a few quality players on their bench that are more than capable of coming into the game and giving great energy, which is all that they need with their top notch starting five. Don’t forget about CJ McCollum, the team’s first round pick. He’ll make an impact later on in the season once he returns from injury and Terry Stotts eases him into the lineup.The Blazer’s next test comes Saturday night, when the Miami Heat come to Rip City. The Blazers split the season series with Heat last year 1-1, and will look to supplant themselves in the conversation of the best team in the NBA with a win against the defending champs.

The more you know 

  • Terrible injury news for two young stars today. Russell Westbrook will be out until after the all star break. Westbrook never fully healed from surgery this offseason and required surgery on the same knee today. Al Horford is out indefinitely with a torn pectoral. This just sucks.
  • James Harden went 2 for 9 from the field yesterday against the Grizzlies. But, he ended up with 27 points. He scored 22 points at the line on 25 free throw attempts as the Rockets won 100-92. He’s the first player to score 25 or more points with just two field goals since Charles Barkley did it in 1995.
  • Ricky Rubio is on pace to be the worst shooter in modern NBA history. Only two players since 1979 have logged 5,000 minutes while shooting under 38% from the field (Eddie Griffin and Daequan Cook). Rubio will log 5,000 by season’s end if healthy and is shooting 35.6% for his career, worse than either Cook and Griffin. Thanks reddit u/scooper1030 for pointing that out.
  • Stephen Curry is apparently really important to Golden State. John Schuhman of NBA.com gathered up the stats and found that Curry is the most important offensive player in the NBA. Golden State scores at a league-high rate with Curry on the floor and struggle to a league-worst rate with him on the bench, 7.2 points worse than the Milwaukee Bucks.

Gif of the night

This is our second great technical foul gif in the last two nights. I think Iggy’s reaction is a little funnier because he managed to hold back his laughter.

League Pass Preview

  • Oklahoma City @ Charlotte 7 pm Life without Russell Westbrook for the Thunder. Let me pour a 40 out for Russ with my favorite play of his.As for the game, watch Kemba Walker if you haven’t yet this season. He leads the league in passes per game and is growing into a very good young point guard. And you know, Kevin Durant.
  • Detroit @ Orlando 7 pm The Magic limp into this one. They’ve lost five straight and eight of their last nine. Orlando continues to scrap and work hard. They almost came back from 26 to beat the Knicks before losing 103-98. Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris are fun young guns to watch and you should really check out Aaron Affalo because he might be traded to a contender later in the year. On the other side, the Pistons try to stay hot on the road, winning seven of their last eight on the road. Brandon Jennings has been excelling outside of Detroit, scoring 20.5 a game on the road. If recent history is any indication, Josh Smith should have a big game as well. He averages 20 points a game against the Magic.
  • Milwaukee @ Brooklyn, Toronto @ New York 7:30pm The two worst matchups of the night happen in the same city, how convenient. The Nets have lost 4 straight, heard boo birds at home on Christmas(!), and Jason Kidd is losing his job slowly. At least, they play the NBA’s worst team in Milwaukee. But if Larry Sanders’s return from a bar fight injury can spark the Bucks, it could mean the end of the Jason Kidd era in Brooklyn. The Knicks, for their part, suffered the worst home Christmas day loss in NBA history last time out. James Dolan announced today that the Knicks aren’t looking at trades or a coaching change anytime soon. Much to the chagrin of fans, he didn’t mention any intention to sell the team. No Carmelo means Toronto(11-15) will probably keep their slim lead in the awful Atlantic division. Andrea Bargnani plays the team that drafted him first overall for the first time, which is moderately interesting.
  • Denver @ New Orleans 8 pm The Nuggets have lost four straight and can’t score at the moment. They’ve scored 100 points twice in their last 10 and averaged a league-worst 90.6 points since December 7th. Ty Lawson has struggled mightily since a hamstring injury earlier this month. Kenneth Faried has missed games with injury, but comes back tonight. On the other side, the Pelicans can’t stop anybody, allowing 105.8 points a game this month. Anthony Davis seems to be getting readjusted after missing just seven games with a broken hand (wait, what???). His presence should help New Orleans’s defense get back on track.
  • Los Angeles @ Utah 9 pm The Lakers played valiantly on Christmas day, leading the defending champions by 10 points before losing by six. Pau Gasol, who played great in that game, will miss tonight’s game with an upper respiratory infection. Watch out for Nick Young, though. Swaggy P is shooting 50% from three over his last six and it’s Swaggy P so at any point he make the most amazing shot you’ve ever seen or get stabbed by Kobe Bryant for missing a crazy shot. The Jazz go as Trey Burke goes. He’s been splendid so far, but he is inconsistent.
  • Miami @ Sacramento 10 pm The Heat play the first game of a back-to-back tonight so don’t expect Dwyane Wade to play. Ray Allen and Michael Beasley will try to pick up the scoring load if Wade is sidelined as they have all year. While this is a mismatch on paper, three of Miami’s four have come against teams under .500 and the Kings could pull this one out. The Heat don’t really have an answer for Boogie Cousins so anticipate a big game from him.
  • Phoenix @ Golden State 10:30 pm

    Stephen Curry and Warriors going up against Eric Bledsoe’s Suns is tonight’s best matchup.

    The last game of the night is the best game of the night. The Suns are on a tear lately, winning seven of their last eight to take over second place in the Pacific Division. They beat the Warriors on December 15th. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson going up against Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic is tantalizing, especially after the four of them combined for 94 points last time. This one will go down to the wire, maybe even overtime. 

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