Monthly Archives: December 2012

Cleveland’s Decision: Anderson Varejao’s future and how it might effect the NBA title chase

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been rebuilding nicely since losing Lebron James to free agency two seasons ago. Kyrie Iriving has brought hope to the franchise after winning the rookie of the year last year and continuing his success this year. Irving looks like a superstar thus far, even receiving hype as the NBA’s best point guard of the future. Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters, the 4th overall picks of the last two drafts, make up a young core that promises to bring Cleveland back to the playoffs in the near future. Youth and patience aren’t what fans want to hear after contending year-after-year for the championship in the Lebron era. But, Cleveland boast exactly that as the whole team is under the age of 26 besides two players: Luke Walton, a non-factor, and Anderson Varejao.

Varejao is Cleveland’s best player behind Irving and the leading candidate for the NBA’s most improved player award. He leads the league in rebounding with 14.4 boards per game and averages 14.1 points a game, both career highs. His player efficiency rating (PER) has increased by 32% in the last two seasons. He has 3 years and $27.3 million left on his contract and, at 30 years old, this makes Varejao one of the best values in the league.

While he is very important to Cleveland on the court, Varejao might be on the way out. His contract, performance this year, and his great intangibles make him the most desirable players in the NBA. While trading your second best player during his best season at only 30 might seem mad, the Cavaliers might just do it. At 7-23, Cleveland will most likely miss the playoffs for the third straight season despite Varejao’s impressive year. Trading him at the height of his value for young pieces and draft picks would be a textbook rebuilding move.

One of the deals floating out there involves one of the best teams in the league, the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder is obviously title contenders, but still don’t seem to have enough to beat Lebron and the Miami Heat. Adding Varejao might put OKC over the top and swing the championship in their favor. OKC could offer Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III, Kendrick Perkins, and Toronto’s protected 1st round pick (available if the pick falls between 4-14) for Varejao. Lamb, traded to OKC from Houston in the James Harden deal, is a raw swing man who showed flashes of brilliance for UConn last year. He would complement the team’s core nicely as a driving small forward to replace or back up Alonzo Gee. Jones has spent most of the season in the d-league, but if he gets his head in the game, he can be a rotation player as backup combo forward. Perkins can give Cleveland a veteran presence to replace Varejao as the leader of the locker room. But, Perkins still has 3 years left on his contract and has declined to a rotation player in the last year. He doesn’t come close to replacing Varejao on the court as evident by his 8.8 PER compared to Varejao’s 22.2. The Cavaliers would be taking a chance on Lamb developing into a solid player and taking on the Perkins’s contract, which overpays the player that he has become, but the deal would give the Cavs desperately needed depth.

The key question for Cleveland is whether they see Varejao in their long term plans. The team is probably two or three years away from being a contender and Varejao might never play as well as he is now. They have a superstar in the making in Irving. He will decide how far the team will go in the coming years and the best plan would be to bring in pieces to win when he is in prime. I believe Varejao can be a part of a championship caliber team when he’s 32 or 33 because, even if he regresses to his career average, he still brings energy and rebounding. Also, Varejao’s motor will rub off on the younger Cavaliers. He gives the team an energy that Perkins simply can’t. His offensive game is improving and he may even get better especially considering the small ball movement in the NBA. I wouldn’t trade him without getting a smorgasbord of high draft picks and an elite young small forward. But, the Cavaliers front office might see this as the best value they will get for Varejao.