The Nutshell 12/29: Injuries, injuries, and more injuries

Black Friday by Gabriel Ibrahim

Russell Westbrook will miss the next six weeks after another knee surgery

The basketball gods have not shown kindness to the NBA this season. Injuries have already plagued many teams and taken over the headlines across the league. Derrick Rose’s return was cut short with a knee injury just a month into the season. A broken foot put a halt to Brook Lopez’s rise to stardom. Kobe Bryant came back briefly before a bum knee knocked him out until Feburary. Rajon Rondo has yet to play this year and Marc Gasol is missing significant time for Memphis. Rookies CJ McCollum and Nerlens Noel have only watched games from the sidelines with Noel likely out the whole year.

Then, friday happened. The Oklahoma City Thunder announced that Russell Westbrook would miss at least 6 weeks after knee surgery. Westbrook will be sidelined until after the all-star break and the Thunder are left scrambling until then. Just hours after hearing of Westbrook’s injury, fans learned that Al Horford torn his pectoral and is out indefinitely. First off, let’s just think about how much both of these injuries suck. Westbrook ranks among the league’s most exciting players, even after his knee injury last season. He was averaging 21/6/7 in 25 games this year and looked like the Westbrook of old. I mean check out this game winner against Golden State.  I think there are maybe 10 players in the league who could complete that play, and Russ does it with the more passion than any of them. The surgery marks the third time Westbrook has gone under in seven months. Despite his successful comeback this year, people around the NBA are beginning to wonder if he’ll be able to retain his explosiveness. Others question if can ever stay healthy considering his style of play. All of which, while warranted criticism, makes every NBA fan frown. As for Horford, his recovery time is going to be about 4 months, bringing him back just as the regular season winds down. In 2011, he suffered the same injury on the other side of his body and played just 11 games for the Hawks. This time, the injury comes just as Atlanta seemed to be gelling into a Eastern Conference contender. Without him, the Hawks fall right back into the muddled pack of bad teams in the East.

The question for both these teams is “Now what?”. The Thunder have the option to stand pat and wait out the six weeks. Reggie Jackson’s emergence in his first season of major minutes is an encouraging sign for the team.

Reggie Jackson will need to step up for the Thunder while Westbrook heals

He averages 12 points, 3 assists, and 4 rebounds in 25 minutes a game. He needs to shoot a bit better as he’s hit just 30% of his shots in his past three games. But, Jackson can at least stabilize the starting five while Westbrook heals. Where the injury really decimates the Thunder is their backcourt depth. With Jackson starting, Jeremy Lamb and Derek Fisher (yes, he is still playing) will have to pick up the slack off the bench. Lamb has already seen his minutes increase this season and has played pretty well in those minutes (9/1/2 in 21 minutes). Derek Fisher is a corpse that the Thunder medical staff electrocutes every time he needs to play. While the Thunder usually opt against roster moves in season, they will need to consider making one this time. The West is just too strong for OKC to stay on top with Bernie Derek Fisher playing major minutes. They could try trading for a point guard like Toronto’s Kyle Lowry. The Thunder could offer their own first round pick, Dallas’s protected first rounder, and the trade exception they got from Kevin Martin’s departure for Lowry. While that’s a lot to give up, Lowry provides a great holdover until Russ gets back and could allow the Thunder to limit Westbrook’s minutes. Otherwise as Yannis Koutroupis of Hoopsworld points out, the Thunder could sign someone like Shannon Brown or they could wait to see how the team responds without Westbrook. The Hawks don’t have as many options, but realistically could be okay without Horford. They’re currently 3rd in the East and will most likely make the playoffs even without their star player.

The Hawks will have to stay afloat and hope Horford can get healthy for the playoffs

Jeff Teague has seemingly turn the corner toward becoming an elite point guard. Paul Milsap and Kyle Korver are enjoying productive season and should help keep the team afloat this season. The real decision for the Hawks will come in early April when Horford could come back. If Horford is ready in four months, he could suit up for the playoffs. But, Atlanta will have to decide whether to go for a miracle this season or hold Horford out to protect their future. Whatever either team decides to do, these injuries have put a damper on great development for each franchise.

The More You Know 

• Last night, Chris Bosh nailed a deep three with 0.5 seconds left in Portland to give the Heat their Eastern-Conference leading 10th close game victory. ESPN stats and info says it was the seventh game-tying or game-winning three with 10 seconds or less left of his career on 10 such attempts. NBA.com stats points out that Bosh is just 3 of 16 on similar shots inside the three point line. After the shot, Lebron and DWade pampered and caped their fellow superstar.
• John Wall notched his sixth consecutive of 20+ points with a 20 spot in last night’s win against Detroit. Wall has improved his scoring this entire season, but his impressive assist numbers have been more important for the Wiz. Washington is 8-2 when they rack up at least 24 assists like they did last night with Wall contributing 11.
• Al Jefferson put a 24 points and 22 rebounds in the Bobcats’ loss to the Hawks last night. It was just the 7th 20-20 game in Bobcat history, just for reference Kevin Love has put up 15 20-20 games in the past 3 years.

Gif of the night

DOUBLE ALLEY OPP! That’s a Giannis Antetokounmpo-Khris Middleton give and go in midair. The Greek Freak has responded well since gaining starter minutes in Milwaukee, putting up highlights like this nightly. He’s been one of the few bright spots for a very bad Bucks team. Thanks to reddit user /u/kylemramos for the gif.

League Pass Primer

The great point guard battle between Curry and Irving makes Cleveland-Golden State the League Pass game of the night

• LP Game of the Night: Golden State @ Cleveland 6pm Each team is heading opposite directions with Golden State riding a four-game win streak and Cleveland having lost its last four. But, both Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving have played great as of late. Irving has averaged 28.7 points a game while shooting 41% from 3 in his last nine, including 32 points on 22 shots in his last game. Curry has struggled to shot recently (31% in his last four), but he’s developed his game in other areas. He’s totaled 44 assists and 28 rebounds over the last four contests while notching his third career triple double(14/13/16) against Phoenix on friday.
• Atlanta @ Orlando 6 pm The Hawks responded well in their first game with Al Horford, beating Charlotte 118-166 in overtime. Paul Milsap(33) and Lou Williams(28) recorded season high point totals. They’re going for their 12th straight win over Orlando, but could have trouble with the Magic’s backcourt without Horford. Look for Nikola Vucevic to rack rebounds.
• Sacramento @ San Antonio 7 pm While a mismatch on paper, the Kings have a shot in this one. They just took down the defending champion Heat and Boogie Cousins has been on a tear lately. He’s put up a double-double in nine of his last 12 and has averaged 25 points and 12 rebounds in the last five games. The Spurs, meanwhile, have surprisingly struggled at home this season losing four of their last seven games. But, San Antonio has yet to lose to a team under .500.
• Philadelphia @ Los Angeles 9:30 pm Honestly, you probably don’t want to watch this one. The Lakers have lost four straight at home, while Phila has been the league’s worst road team. Pau Gasol and Chris Kaman are game-time decisions as is Evan Turner for the 76ers.
• Not on League Pass: Houston @ Oklahoma City 7 pm NBAtv 

The Bright Side for the Oklahoma City Thunder

Kevin Durant and OKC’s great year ended in disappointment, but hope still prevails for the Thunder

Before the NBA Playoffs began, Kevin Durant graced the cover of Sports Illustrated. The magazine put a quote by Durant on the cover with a photo of him at the free throw line. The quote showed the disgust that Durant has for second place as the second pick in the 2007 NBA draft, the second best high school prospect in his class, and a part of the second best team last season. It ends with Durant professing that he “is done” with second place. This year he didn’t end up in second place, but didn’t even reach the podium as the Thunder bowed out in the second round against Memphis in 5 games.

Despite obvious disappointment, Durant stated that the season, while completely falling short of expectations, was not a waste. In many ways, Durant is correct. Yes, the Thunder looked as close to bad as they could look in the Memphis series. Yes, Oklahoma City General Manager Sam Presti and head coach Scottie Brooks should receive heat for their actions in the preseason and postseason. Yes, it appears the Thunder have digressed from last season. All those concerns have valid roots and we’ll touch on them later, but the 2013 season brought plenty of good for the Thunder. The team captured the top seed in the West for the first time ever and won the most games in franchise history (I know the NBA counts the Seattle years in OKC’s history, but that is bullcrap and we all know it, FOREVER LIVE THE SONICS). Every returning player improved his PER. Durant took two less shots a game while increase his points per average, saw his shooting percentage increase by five, increased his assist average, and improved his defense. Russell Westbrook had similar growth but to a lesser degree as he improved his shooting percentage. We also saw less or at least talked less about instances where Westbrook hindered his team by shooting too much and spoke more of his ability to lead his offense.

Durant’s and Westbrook’s improvements all came as they had to carry a larger share of the team’s burdens due to the trade of James Harden. Serge Ibaka’s emergence on offense and two successful acquisitions by Presti in Reggie Jackson and Kevin Martin also contributed to filling the void left by Harden’s absence. Ibaka transformed himself into a small ball center in the model of Chris Bosh. He took more shots per game and added four more points per game. His biggest improvement was his three-point shooting. He only attempted six three pointers in his first three years in the NBA; this season, he attempted 57 three pointers. Ibaka made an impressive 35 percent of those shots, which beat Bosh’s mark this season by six percentage points. Martin gave OKC 14 points per game after coming over from Houston in the trade and Jackson took over the backup point guard position from Eric Maynor.

The Thunder though fell apart when Westbrook got hurt in the playoffs. Their struggles were visible as the offense fell apart against Memphis as they couldn’t adjust to life without Westbrook and Memphis’s great defense made that life hell for OKC. The tale of the Thunder collapse without Westbrook has been well chronicled and don’t need rehashing (unlike the positives of a great season that nobody seems to acknowledge). Criticism has poured in from every corner mainly on Presti and Brooks. Brooks deserve to be questioned for his inability to create any sort of strategy after Westbrook’s injury and mismanaging a number of situations in the playoffs such as not pressuring ball handlers against Memphis, leaving Durant in for too long against the Rockets, letting Durant play point guard, and allowing Kendrick Perkins to see the floor. The heat on Presti comes from the Harden trade. The decision to trade Harden cost the Thunder a finals trip this season by demolishing the chemistry they built last season. The trio that OKC seemed to build their future around enjoyed playing with each other and truly appeared to loved each other. They wanted to win for each other, they wanted to beat the Heat together. Then, Presti ran a train through their friendship because he was afraid to give up Harden for almost nothing. He could’ve waited and seen what happened this season then make a decision or amnesty Kendrick Perkins to create enough cap space that the tax would not be crippling. He could’ve afforded Harden anyway by amnestying the basically useless Perkins—I’m not a fan of his—and filling out the team with minimum veterans and rookies like the Miami Heat have.

So the Front Office probably cost the Thunder a finals run this year and a big three that would rival any in the NBA including the one on South Beach, but the future is still shining bright as long as Presti gets his mojo back. He can start by making a move he should have before last season: Amnesty Kendrick Perkins. Perkins’s performance in last year’s finals was atrocious and showed that he would no longer be valuable against teams that play small ball. This season, he declined in every major statistical category except assists and on defense. In the playoffs, he finished with a -0.11 PER to become the first player ever to finish the playoffs with a negative PER while playing 200+ minutes. To reiterate, he had THE WORST POSTSEASON EVER by that measure. Perkins will make 8 million next year and 9 million the following and Presti traded Harden because he cost too much. The move would be a year too late, but nonetheless necessary to provide some cap flexibility.

If they amnesty Perkins, the Thunder will have about 62 million in salary among nine players. The salary cap is projected to be about 69 million with the luxury tax at 84.4 million. With that 22 million in space before the tax, Presti needs use his draft picks efficiently and sign a swingman or big man to replace Martin and Perkins. The Thunder own their pick, number 28, and the Raptors’ pick should it fall outside of the top 3 in the lottery. The Raptors pick is hard to project because the lottery will decide who will be there for OKC, but if UCLA swingman Shabazz Muhammad falls to that pick, he could make sense in Oklahoma City. Muhammad can drive, spot up from three, and post up on smaller players, much like James Harden can. At 28, Presti should look at Center Jeff Withey from Kansas. Withey can run the floor, play the pick-and-roll game, and defends better than any other center in the draft. In free agency, the Thunder will have about 5 million in cap space and a 3 million in the taxpayer’s mid-level exception to fill out the roster. They need grab a bench scorer and some are available this offseason. OJ Mayo and JR Smith fit the bill, but might price themselves out of OKC’s market. Marco Bellinelli is a more realistic target and showed that he can score when given the opportunity this postseason. The Thunder will also look for some size after letting Perkins go. JJ Hickson makes sense, but again could be out of their price range. Brenden Wright, who averaged 8.5 points and 4.1 boards, fits for the Thunder this offseason.

The Thunder Front Office failed this season and smothered the team’s chance at a title this year. Their coach failed them in the playoffs. They need to make moves to get back to title contender status. But, the future in OKC will always be bright so long as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook don a Thunder uniform.