The return of the 2-guard

The development of young guns like Klay Thompson and improvements by Monta Ellis and other vets have the SG position on the rise.

In 2011, just three shooting guards (Kobe Bryant, Monta Ellis, Joe Johnson) finished in the top 20 of scoring. The rise of ball-handling “point” forwards and emergence of scoring point guards diminished the role of shooting guards. Why draw up plays for your 2 when your point guard and small forward could both score and create more efficiently?  It seemed the decline in production and talent at the position would continue as the league struggled to find young 2-guards. Kobe was (and is) at the end of his career, Dwyane Wade struggled with injuries and age, James Harden had yet to emerge, and the rest of the pack lacked star potential. Shortly after the lockout ended, Bill Simmons wrote “since Jordan’s heyday, there were always enough quality 2-guards to go around; that’s not the case anymore.” He broke down the position like this:

FRANCHISE GUYS	ALL-STARS	POTENTIAL ALL-STAR	SCORERS ONLY	SURE-THING STARTERS	EFFICIENT VETERANS	UP-AND-COMERS	POSSIBLE UPSIDE GUYS
Dwyane Wade	Joe Johnson	Eric Gordon	Monta Ellis	James Harden	Ray Allen	Demar DeRozan	Evan Turner
Kobe Bryant	Manu Ginobili		Kevin Martin	Wesley Matthews	Jason Richardson	Nick Young	Marcus Thorton
				Arron Affalo	Jason Terry	OJ Mayo	JR Smith
							Gordon Heyward
							Klay Thompson

Not a very pretty picture for the spot that housed Jordan, Clyde Drexler, and Reggie Miller. But in the last two years, the off guard position has seen a revival. Last season, six of the top 25 NBA scorers played at the 2. This year has brought even more production from shooting guards. 7 of the top 20 scorers are off guards, despite the fact that Kobe has yet to play and Dwyane Wade has seen his minutes go down. So what happened in the last two years to create this spike in production? Let’s use Simmons’s chart to explain it.

FRANCHISE GUYS	ALL-STARS	POTENTIAL ALL-STARS	SCORERS ONLY	SURE-THING STARTERS	EFFICIENT VETERANS	UP-AND-COMERS	UPSIDE GUYS
Dwyane Wade	Arron Affalo	Bradley Beal	JR Smith	Wesley Matthews	Ray Allen	Gordon Hayward	Victor Oladipo
Kobe Bryant	Monta Ellis	Klay Thompson	Kevin Martin		Manu Ginobili	Lance Stephenson	Ben McLemore
James Harden			Nick Young		Joe Johnson	Jimmy Butler
			Demar DeRozan		OJ Mayo
					Jamal Crawford

Players who switch roles are italicized and players who were added to the chart are in bold. The most important change in the chart comes in the first column. James Harden’s leap from potential star to budding superstar has given Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant a heir.

James Harden is the heir apparent to Kobe and Wade.

Wade is playing efficiently thus far in 2013. He’s posted the best shooting percentage of his career, while scoring 20+ points in seven of his last eight games. But, Wade has already sat out three games (probably just resting, but still) and is playing the second lowest minutes per game of his career. Kobe isn’t Kobe anymore and his Achilles injury makes me worried he’ll be a shell of what he was last season. But if anyone can come back from that injury, it’s Kobe and I think he will. When he comes back, expect him to put up a lot of shots and points as he gets closer to the all-time scoring record. Neither player will play much longer so Harden’s arrival is a massive boost to the position. Harden still needs to work on his defense (a lot) to sustain the title, but his offensive play and leadership last season make him the franchise player that the position desperately needed.

Last season saw four other off-guards step up in addition to Harden. JR Smith took home the NBA’s Sixth man of the year last season. He still took a lot of shots, ranging amazing to atrocities against the game, but he made plays for a Knicks team that needed them. Smith showed that he could live his wild life off the court while remaining competent on the court. Then this happened:  He failed to shoot 40% from the field the rest of the playoffs. Smith missed the first five games this year due a suspension and has struggled mightily after knee surgery. So he may fall off the list as the year progresses, but for now JR is a competent scorer. Jamal Crawford could’ve won the sixth man award from his performance last year. He scored almost 15 points a game in 26 minutes and shot the 4th highest shooting percentage of his career. Unlike JR Smith, Crawford has played better this season. He’s shooting better(45.5%, up from 43.8%), making threes more often(2.2 a game, 39.8%), and ranks 6th in the NBA on pull-up shot efficiency. He’ll play less minutes this year because JJ Redick has contributed this year for the Clips. This may make him less valuable during the regular season, but the rest might help the 33-year old stay fresh and healthy for the playoffs. Jimmy Butler and Lance Stephenson both announced themselves during the playoffs last year. Both showed flashes of their potential during the regular season and contributed mainly in small, defensive roles. Butler’s Game 1 performance against the Heat (21 points, 14 rebounds, played entire game) solidified his status as an up-and-comer. Stephenson also had 20 point games in last year’s playoffs series against the Knicks and the Heat. Both have seen more time this season and have each improved.

A slew of shooting guards outside of Butler and Stephenson have progressed this year. Monta Ellis’s improvement is probably the most surprising. Mr. Have it all has gotten better in every aspect of his game and eliminated shots that made his game inefficient. Monta leads the league in drives and points off drives and he’s doing much of it on pick-and-rolls. He also moved closer to the basket this season, taking 62.4% of his shots from within 16 ft as opposed to 53.7% last season. Ellis is just scoring, he’s dishing out 6 assists a game. He’s leading the Mavs’ resurgence this season and it looks like Monta has finally found the perfect team (check out this article by Tom Ley for more on Monta).

Arron Afflalo has been playing at a all-star level this year.

Another veteran 2-guard is reaching new heights this year.  Arron Afflalo saw his role increased by the Magic this year and has responded with the best season of his career so far. The 28-year old currently has career highs in minutes(36.8), field goal attempts(15.3), 3pt attempts(5.2), 3pt percentage (50%!!) rebounds(4.7), and finally points(21.7). He’s been at an all-star level this season for Orlando, but he still might get traded this year. The Magic might see an opportunity to snag draft picks by trading Afflalo.

Around the league, shooting guards are contributing in a big way so far. Bradley Beal is maturing into a bright, young star. Demar DeRozan has scored almost at will and shows signs of growth in every facet of his game. The two off guards taken in the top 5, Victor Oladipo and Ben McLemore, have impressed many thus far. Both have fantastic dunks this season that you should really watch if you haven’t yet (Oladipo over the Hawks and McLemore from the free throw line). Wesley Matthews stepped his game this season, Gordon Hayward will improve his shooting in search of a big contract, and Ray Allen is excelling in his role this season. Specialists like JJ Redick and Kyle Korver impact their teams so much that they’ve earned extra time. So top to bottom, the shooting guard position has added another superstar, potential stars, and plenty of depth. The great drought of 2 guards might finally be coming to an end and one of the NBA’s premier positions is back.

The Nutshell 11/27: Anthony Davis has made the leap

Anthony Davis might be the NBA’s next great power forward

When the New Orleans Pelicans play, you can’t miss Anthony Davis. Last night against Golden State, he picked up his fourth foul with 9:48 left in the 4th quarter. He returned with 6:48 left and simply took over the game. He tied the game at 93 with 3:21 left and racked up 7 points and 3 rebounds in the final minutes. With 1:27 remaining, Davis made a play that really defines his game. After a Warriors timeout, Klay Thompson missed a 14-foot jumper and rebound went right to Davis. He gave the ball up to Tyreke Evans, sprinted out ahead of all his teammates, and reached the paint before most of the Warriors could get in position. Evans drove to the hoop and missed the layup, a normal occurrence for him this season. Davis was in perfect position though and slammed home the rebound.

On the last possession, Jrue Holiday passed to a open Eric Gordon on the wing rather Davis, who was open at the free throw line. Gordon missed the shot and the Pelicans fell to 6-8 on the season. In foul trouble for most of the night, Davis took just 9 shots in 30 minutes. But, he drained 6 of them and finished with 14 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks. He picked 7 of those points in the last 4 minutes of the game. More importantly, Davis showed last night why many think he’s made the proverbial leap. He has improved defensively, after impressing last year on that side of the ball. He only trails Roy “The Scarecrow” Hibbert (it’ll catch on, trust me) in blocks per game and averages 1.7 steals a game, which is top 20 in the NBA and 8th best among forwards.

Davis’s defense has gotten even better from last season

He allows opponents to shoot just 42.5% at the rim, 5th best among players who face 5 shots at the rim a game. Davis also does a great job of using his long arms to eliminate passing and can effect shots by players of all sizes. His lankiness and quickness allow him to cover every player and every spot on the floor. He is shooting up the ranks of the NBA’s most versatile defenders. Along with his fantastic defense, Davis also rebounds like a monster. He averages 10.6 rebounds a game on 15.5 rebound opportunities, the 6th best rebounding percentage among players averaging 9 rebounds. He always seems to have good position and has a knack for knowing where shots will go. Despite his lack of girth at 220 pounds, Davis rebounds well when challenged by opponents. He ranks 4th in league with 4.8 contested rebounds a game.

While impressive, we knew of Davis’s defense and rebounding skills heading into the season. His offensive maturity from last year is what has raised eyebrows around the league. Davis has acted as the catalyst for New Orleans offense. He averages 1.09 points per possession, 3rd best among Pelicans playing 30% of the time. He has shot 49.7% from the field, not a particularly great number considering 62% of his shots come from within 8 feet. But, Davis really impacts the team’s ball movement. When he is in the game, New Orleans runs its entire offense off Davis’s picks, which are some of the best in the league. His picks are only surpassed by the rolls he makes off those screens. Davis cuts right through the middle of the defense off every pick and forces the defense to collapse on him or give up an easy dunk. Even if the roll is shut down, his picks allow the rest of the offense to flow. When he sits, the offense slows to halt as far as ball movement.

Davis has trouble creating his own shot and needs to work on his post game to become a truly dominant big man, but his progress this season suggest he can improve in those areas. All signs in this young season point to the Brow becoming a superstar. His defense and rebounding already make him one of the league’s most versatile players, but his offense is what will make him one of the league’s best power forwards.

The more you know:

• Chris Paul has my imaginary vote for MVP right now. He generates 37.4 points per game off his assists and averages 19.3 points himself, meaning he is responsible for nearly 60 points a game BY HIMSELF. His assist average of 12.5 puts him almost 4 assists better than anyone in the league. He also leads the league in touches this season. What I’m trying to say is that CP3 is basically the entire Clippers team right now and deserves consideration for MVP despite Lebron’s fantastic year so far.
• Kevin Love is just the perfect white guy. He leads the NBA in rebounds and rebounding chances, despite playing almost exclusively below the rim. He just knows where to be, He’s smart  saavy a gym rat any number of the adjectives that analysts use to describe white players. He also can’t dance. But seriously, check out some of his outlet passes this season. They are a thing of beauty.
  
• Andre Drummond leads the NBA in field goal percentage at 65.9%. He also has the league’s worst free throw percentage for players playing 20 minutes a game at 24%. He has only taken 4 of his 123 field goals from more than 8 feet. I have nothing to add this.

League Pass game of the night:

There are a lot of great games on tonight. Lebron heads back to Cleveland for what should be a blowout at 7:30 on ESPN (making it ineligible for League Pass). Atlanta-Houston and Denver-Minnesota should both be competitive and watching Rubio, Love, and Harden will always entertain. Those two will be at 8 pm. Golden State is always watchable and Monta Ellis has impressed this season for Dallas; they play at 8:30. Portland@Phoenix would probably get the top spot any other night, mainly because I irrationally like teams with twins and the Pacific Northwest.

Timmy and the Spurs head to Oklahoma City for the League Pass game of the night

But the top spot belongs to Oklahoma City and San Antonio. I don’t need to explain this one, just tune in at 8 pm and watch some magnificent basketball.

The Return gone wrong: How the Bulls can move on without Derrick Rose

Derrick Rose is out for the season, again, and the Bulls front office has some questions to answer.

For the second straight year, Derrick Rose will watch a season from the bench. The Bulls announced yesterday that Rose would undergo surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee and will miss the remainder of the season. Obviously, this is a bummer for every NBA fan. Even if you hate the Bulls (like I do), you miss watching Rose get to the bucket and finish. You miss the way he can take over a game. In the bigger picture, you miss the threat that the Bulls with Rose presented the Heat. Now, a Miami-Indiana matchup is all but inevitable in the Eastern Conference Finals.  The series will be fantastic and I’m sure no one will be upset with a third postseason meeting between the two. Yet, Derrick Rose and the Bulls could have beat, or at least challenged, both teams. The Bulls without Rose simply can’t and right now, no other team in the East could either. The Nets and Knicks are competing for the coveted most embarrassing team in New York title. Detroit has yet to figure out how to play basketball together and might never figure it out. Washington and Cleveland seem to have regressed somehow. Toronto’s best player is Rudy Gay. Atlanta, far-and-away the third best team in the East, looks halfway decent and maybe good enough to get the 7 seed out west. The rest of teams are actually trying to lose games or play in Milwaukee. Without Rose, the East sucks even more and the Bulls are right in the middle of the heap.

For basketball fans, Rose’s injury bums you out and will make you look up youtube highlight reels of the young star. For the Bulls front office, the injury set off this reaction.

The team is completely built around a healthy Rose and they don’t have a lot of cap space to make moves to win this year. They do, however, have assets to help the team going forward. First though, Owner Jerry Reisdorf and GM Gar Forman must answer a question that no wants to ask. Is Derrick Rose still your franchise cornerstone? By the time he returns, Rose will have missed basically two entire seasons. He will have a serious injury history with both his knees, including two very arduous and long rehabs. This season, Rose shot a career worst 35.4% from the field and 24% on shots 3-24 ft from the basket. He is one of the league leaders in passes per game at 60.6, but has struggled to create scoring opportunities for his teammates with just 15.2 points created per 48 minutes. The stats from the first 10 games say 2013-14 would be Rose’s worst season yet. But, let’s not overreact to 10 games. He looked rusty and unconditioned from the year off. I think he would have returned to something close to the Derrick Rose of 2010. I still believe he can return to his old self or at least 80% of it after this surgery. He isn’t injury prone based on these two knee injuries because they are different in nature and aren’t due to chronic issues. So the Chicago front office can still consider him a superstar and cornerstone, but should cautiously build around him and always have a backup plan in case his injuries become constant.

The Bulls have three franchise players in Rose, Joakim Noah, and Jimmy Butler. They can move forward with those three and expect to compete for a championship  every year. Butler isn’t due a contract extension until 2016 and his current deal is a great value if he takes a step forward this season. Noah made a big leap last year and is the heart and soul of the franchise, even when Rose is healthy. Outside of those three players, the Bulls’ roster breaks down like this:

Untouchables	Tradable assests	Trade fillers/Pieces	Amnesty him already
Derrick Rose (4 years/$19M a year)	Loul Deng (1/$14M)	Mike Dunleavy (2/$3M)	Carlos Boozer(2/$16M)
Jimmy Butler(3/$2M)	Taj Gibson(4/$8.23M)	Mike James(1/$1.4M)
Joakim Noah(3/$13M)	Kirk Hinrich(1/$4M)	Nazr Mohammad(1/$1.4M)
		Marquis Teague(4/$1.75M)
		Tony Snell(5/$2M)

By far, the two most tradeable assets are Deng’s expiring deal and Taj Gibson. Deng will fetch a good haul for the right time, especially as injuries start taking out key players on contenders. If he has a impressive year, the Bulls could get a late first rounder and young talent like Ed Davis or they could go for an older player on a good deal like Paul Milsap.

Chicago has to trade Loul Deng to move the Franchise forward

Normally, we could fire up the trade machine to create a fake trade that would never happen. But this early in the year, teams aren’t trying to make moves and the landscape will change when they decide they want to so there’s no point in whipping out the TM. Gibson provides teams more value because of his contract, but teams might not want commit to its length. Realistically, Gibson won’t be traded in-season. I think he will be a Bull for the foreseeable future because Chicago needs to put a competitive team on the floor this year and he fits that franchise so well. I doubt the Bulls can trade Boozer because he is making $15 million this year(!!) and $16.8 million next year(!!!!). But, he can still put up 16 points and 8 rebounds a game so exploring trade possibilities involving Boozer will be worth Chicago’s time. He should’ve been amnestied this summer (or the last) and still could be, but I suspect the Bulls will keep him through the contract. Chicago’s historically frugal front office won’t like the idea of paying Boozer $16 mil to play elsewhere. The rest of team isn’t particularly attractive to other teams. The immediate concern for Chicago must be trading Deng. His contract ends after this season and getting something for his massive contract is paramount to their future success.

The most logical move for the Bulls right now is exploring trade options for everyone on their roster, making sure teams know Deng is available, and trying to get enough cap space to sign helpful pieces in the offseason. This season will be another lost year for Chicago and, hopefully for Bulls fans, the front office realizes that. They need to start planning for next season and the future. Tanking would be advisable, but Thibs is too good of a coach and the team is too talented to achieve a good tank. Thibs could rest some of his main guys like Noah and Butler, but he hasn’t exactly managed his players’ minutes in the past. Whatever direction the Bulls decide to go, Derrick Rose’s recovery is the key. If he can come back and be a superstar, the Bulls can ignore everything I just said and compete for a title. If he can’t, the franchise will be in ruin.

Get well soon Derrick. We miss you