The Nutshell 12/29: Injuries, injuries, and more injuries

Black Friday by Gabriel Ibrahim

Russell Westbrook will miss the next six weeks after another knee surgery

The basketball gods have not shown kindness to the NBA this season. Injuries have already plagued many teams and taken over the headlines across the league. Derrick Rose’s return was cut short with a knee injury just a month into the season. A broken foot put a halt to Brook Lopez’s rise to stardom. Kobe Bryant came back briefly before a bum knee knocked him out until Feburary. Rajon Rondo has yet to play this year and Marc Gasol is missing significant time for Memphis. Rookies CJ McCollum and Nerlens Noel have only watched games from the sidelines with Noel likely out the whole year.

Then, friday happened. The Oklahoma City Thunder announced that Russell Westbrook would miss at least 6 weeks after knee surgery. Westbrook will be sidelined until after the all-star break and the Thunder are left scrambling until then. Just hours after hearing of Westbrook’s injury, fans learned that Al Horford torn his pectoral and is out indefinitely. First off, let’s just think about how much both of these injuries suck. Westbrook ranks among the league’s most exciting players, even after his knee injury last season. He was averaging 21/6/7 in 25 games this year and looked like the Westbrook of old. I mean check out this game winner against Golden State.  I think there are maybe 10 players in the league who could complete that play, and Russ does it with the more passion than any of them. The surgery marks the third time Westbrook has gone under in seven months. Despite his successful comeback this year, people around the NBA are beginning to wonder if he’ll be able to retain his explosiveness. Others question if can ever stay healthy considering his style of play. All of which, while warranted criticism, makes every NBA fan frown. As for Horford, his recovery time is going to be about 4 months, bringing him back just as the regular season winds down. In 2011, he suffered the same injury on the other side of his body and played just 11 games for the Hawks. This time, the injury comes just as Atlanta seemed to be gelling into a Eastern Conference contender. Without him, the Hawks fall right back into the muddled pack of bad teams in the East.

The question for both these teams is “Now what?”. The Thunder have the option to stand pat and wait out the six weeks. Reggie Jackson’s emergence in his first season of major minutes is an encouraging sign for the team.

Reggie Jackson will need to step up for the Thunder while Westbrook heals

He averages 12 points, 3 assists, and 4 rebounds in 25 minutes a game. He needs to shoot a bit better as he’s hit just 30% of his shots in his past three games. But, Jackson can at least stabilize the starting five while Westbrook heals. Where the injury really decimates the Thunder is their backcourt depth. With Jackson starting, Jeremy Lamb and Derek Fisher (yes, he is still playing) will have to pick up the slack off the bench. Lamb has already seen his minutes increase this season and has played pretty well in those minutes (9/1/2 in 21 minutes). Derek Fisher is a corpse that the Thunder medical staff electrocutes every time he needs to play. While the Thunder usually opt against roster moves in season, they will need to consider making one this time. The West is just too strong for OKC to stay on top with Bernie Derek Fisher playing major minutes. They could try trading for a point guard like Toronto’s Kyle Lowry. The Thunder could offer their own first round pick, Dallas’s protected first rounder, and the trade exception they got from Kevin Martin’s departure for Lowry. While that’s a lot to give up, Lowry provides a great holdover until Russ gets back and could allow the Thunder to limit Westbrook’s minutes. Otherwise as Yannis Koutroupis of Hoopsworld points out, the Thunder could sign someone like Shannon Brown or they could wait to see how the team responds without Westbrook. The Hawks don’t have as many options, but realistically could be okay without Horford. They’re currently 3rd in the East and will most likely make the playoffs even without their star player.

The Hawks will have to stay afloat and hope Horford can get healthy for the playoffs

Jeff Teague has seemingly turn the corner toward becoming an elite point guard. Paul Milsap and Kyle Korver are enjoying productive season and should help keep the team afloat this season. The real decision for the Hawks will come in early April when Horford could come back. If Horford is ready in four months, he could suit up for the playoffs. But, Atlanta will have to decide whether to go for a miracle this season or hold Horford out to protect their future. Whatever either team decides to do, these injuries have put a damper on great development for each franchise.

The More You Know 

• Last night, Chris Bosh nailed a deep three with 0.5 seconds left in Portland to give the Heat their Eastern-Conference leading 10th close game victory. ESPN stats and info says it was the seventh game-tying or game-winning three with 10 seconds or less left of his career on 10 such attempts. NBA.com stats points out that Bosh is just 3 of 16 on similar shots inside the three point line. After the shot, Lebron and DWade pampered and caped their fellow superstar.
• John Wall notched his sixth consecutive of 20+ points with a 20 spot in last night’s win against Detroit. Wall has improved his scoring this entire season, but his impressive assist numbers have been more important for the Wiz. Washington is 8-2 when they rack up at least 24 assists like they did last night with Wall contributing 11.
• Al Jefferson put a 24 points and 22 rebounds in the Bobcats’ loss to the Hawks last night. It was just the 7th 20-20 game in Bobcat history, just for reference Kevin Love has put up 15 20-20 games in the past 3 years.

Gif of the night

DOUBLE ALLEY OPP! That’s a Giannis Antetokounmpo-Khris Middleton give and go in midair. The Greek Freak has responded well since gaining starter minutes in Milwaukee, putting up highlights like this nightly. He’s been one of the few bright spots for a very bad Bucks team. Thanks to reddit user /u/kylemramos for the gif.

League Pass Primer

The great point guard battle between Curry and Irving makes Cleveland-Golden State the League Pass game of the night

• LP Game of the Night: Golden State @ Cleveland 6pm Each team is heading opposite directions with Golden State riding a four-game win streak and Cleveland having lost its last four. But, both Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving have played great as of late. Irving has averaged 28.7 points a game while shooting 41% from 3 in his last nine, including 32 points on 22 shots in his last game. Curry has struggled to shot recently (31% in his last four), but he’s developed his game in other areas. He’s totaled 44 assists and 28 rebounds over the last four contests while notching his third career triple double(14/13/16) against Phoenix on friday.
• Atlanta @ Orlando 6 pm The Hawks responded well in their first game with Al Horford, beating Charlotte 118-166 in overtime. Paul Milsap(33) and Lou Williams(28) recorded season high point totals. They’re going for their 12th straight win over Orlando, but could have trouble with the Magic’s backcourt without Horford. Look for Nikola Vucevic to rack rebounds.
• Sacramento @ San Antonio 7 pm While a mismatch on paper, the Kings have a shot in this one. They just took down the defending champion Heat and Boogie Cousins has been on a tear lately. He’s put up a double-double in nine of his last 12 and has averaged 25 points and 12 rebounds in the last five games. The Spurs, meanwhile, have surprisingly struggled at home this season losing four of their last seven games. But, San Antonio has yet to lose to a team under .500.
• Philadelphia @ Los Angeles 9:30 pm Honestly, you probably don’t want to watch this one. The Lakers have lost four straight at home, while Phila has been the league’s worst road team. Pau Gasol and Chris Kaman are game-time decisions as is Evan Turner for the 76ers.
• Not on League Pass: Houston @ Oklahoma City 7 pm NBAtv 

The Nutshell 12/27: Can Portland win the NBA title

Blaze it Up by Arian Tadayon

The Blazers have shocked the NBA so far, but can they keep it up?

For those that missed last night’s 116-112 overtime thriller between the Blazers and Clippers, I suggest you watch the highlights and pray to your deity that NBAtv airs it again. The game was an absolute battle. Every time you thought the Blazers were going to blow the door off the game, the Clippers battled back. With the Blazers up 91-80 with 7 minutes left, it appeared as though the Clippers just didn’t have enough, coming off a back to back that ended late the night before. But, Chris Paul went on to further established himself as the best point guard in the NBA (sorry Tony Parker). CP3 scored the Clippers’ last 8 points in the 4th including a fade away baseline jumper over Wes Matthews with 9 seconds left that put the Clippers up 3. The Clippers elected not to foul and play the free throw game, which left the door wide open for a Nicolas Batum 3-pointer to tie it at 101 with 5 seconds left. The game went into overtime after Paul missed a relatively open shot at the end of regulation. In OT, it was the LaMarcus Aldridge show. The league’s best power forward scored 7 in the extra period, including an and-1 that fouled DeAndre Jordan out of the game.  With Jordan on the sideline, Blake Griffin struggled to slow down Aldridge as he finished the night with 32 points and 10 boards and the Blazers came away with their league leading 24th win.

Last night’s game exemplified just how clutch the Blazers have been this season. This is in large part due to the fact that their starting 5. The Lilliard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez lineup has so many viable options to get the much needed bucket in crunch time, that defenses can’t try and lock in on certain players. Any type of help defense, the Blazers can easily find the open man and make you pay by knocking down a big shot. The Blazers starting five has a league leading and astonishing +123 plus-minus, scoring 1.17 points per possession. Now lets take a look at the clutch statistics of the Blazers, which our friends at www.82games.com define as the 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, and neither team ahead by more than 5 points. Damian Lillard, who is the team’s go to in the end of games, is shooting an astounding effective field goal percentage of 61.4% on his jumpers in crunch time. To put that in perspective for you, Lebron James’ effective field goal percentage is 59.4% on his jumpers and Kevin Durant is shooting just 27.9%. Now let’s look at the other options in case a guy like CP3 is locking Lillard down, Batum is shooting an effective field goal % of 71.4% on his jumpers in crunch time, that is just absurd! Add that option to Wes Matthews who is shooting 55.6% on his jumpers in crunch time and you have an unstoppable force. On top of great shooting at the end of games, Robin Lopez is crashing for offensive boards as good as anyone in the league, giving the team second chance shots that can really demoralize the opponent.

Now here’s the $88,888 question, can they win the title? Critics of this team will quickly shoot down this notion and tell you that this team is bound to cool off and settle into the middle tier of teams in the west. But I’m going to tell you why that is not going to be the case. The Blazers will continue winning games and can contend for the title because they have balance and flexibility in their roster. On offense, the Blazers will knock down shots, penetrate to the lane, crash the boards, and feed the ball to their MVP candidate LaMarcus Aldridge whose turn around jumper ranks among the league’s best moves . On defense, this team has flexibility because they are able to put Batum, the team’s best defender, on the opposing team’s 1, 2, 3, or 4, and Matthews has become very good at slowing the other team’s point guard when Lillard is overmatched. The main knock on this team is their bench, which is scoring 23.9 points per game (27th). Although their bench is scoring in the bottom tier of teams, the Blazers have quite a few quality players on their bench that are more than capable of coming into the game and giving great energy, which is all that they need with their top notch starting five. Don’t forget about CJ McCollum, the team’s first round pick. He’ll make an impact later on in the season once he returns from injury and Terry Stotts eases him into the lineup.The Blazer’s next test comes Saturday night, when the Miami Heat come to Rip City. The Blazers split the season series with Heat last year 1-1, and will look to supplant themselves in the conversation of the best team in the NBA with a win against the defending champs.

The more you know 

• Terrible injury news for two young stars today. Russell Westbrook will be out until after the all star break. Westbrook never fully healed from surgery this offseason and required surgery on the same knee today. Al Horford is out indefinitely with a torn pectoral. This just sucks.
• James Harden went 2 for 9 from the field yesterday against the Grizzlies. But, he ended up with 27 points. He scored 22 points at the line on 25 free throw attempts as the Rockets won 100-92. He’s the first player to score 25 or more points with just two field goals since Charles Barkley did it in 1995.
• Ricky Rubio is on pace to be the worst shooter in modern NBA history. Only two players since 1979 have logged 5,000 minutes while shooting under 38% from the field (Eddie Griffin and Daequan Cook). Rubio will log 5,000 by season’s end if healthy and is shooting 35.6% for his career, worse than either Cook and Griffin. Thanks reddit u/scooper1030 for pointing that out.
• Stephen Curry is apparently really important to Golden State. John Schuhman of NBA.com gathered up the stats and found that Curry is the most important offensive player in the NBA. Golden State scores at a league-high rate with Curry on the floor and struggle to a league-worst rate with him on the bench, 7.2 points worse than the Milwaukee Bucks.

Gif of the night

This is our second great technical foul gif in the last two nights. I think Iggy’s reaction is a little funnier because he managed to hold back his laughter.

League Pass Preview

• Oklahoma City @ Charlotte 7 pm Life without Russell Westbrook for the Thunder. Let me pour a 40 out for Russ with my favorite play of his.As for the game, watch Kemba Walker if you haven’t yet this season. He leads the league in passes per game and is growing into a very good young point guard. And you know, Kevin Durant.
• Detroit @ Orlando 7 pm The Magic limp into this one. They’ve lost five straight and eight of their last nine. Orlando continues to scrap and work hard. They almost came back from 26 to beat the Knicks before losing 103-98. Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris are fun young guns to watch and you should really check out Aaron Affalo because he might be traded to a contender later in the year. On the other side, the Pistons try to stay hot on the road, winning seven of their last eight on the road. Brandon Jennings has been excelling outside of Detroit, scoring 20.5 a game on the road. If recent history is any indication, Josh Smith should have a big game as well. He averages 20 points a game against the Magic.
• Milwaukee @ Brooklyn, Toronto @ New York 7:30pm The two worst matchups of the night happen in the same city, how convenient. The Nets have lost 4 straight, heard boo birds at home on Christmas(!), and Jason Kidd is losing his job slowly. At least, they play the NBA’s worst team in Milwaukee. But if Larry Sanders’s return from a bar fight injury can spark the Bucks, it could mean the end of the Jason Kidd era in Brooklyn. The Knicks, for their part, suffered the worst home Christmas day loss in NBA history last time out. James Dolan announced today that the Knicks aren’t looking at trades or a coaching change anytime soon. Much to the chagrin of fans, he didn’t mention any intention to sell the team. No Carmelo means Toronto(11-15) will probably keep their slim lead in the awful Atlantic division. Andrea Bargnani plays the team that drafted him first overall for the first time, which is moderately interesting.
• Denver @ New Orleans 8 pm The Nuggets have lost four straight and can’t score at the moment. They’ve scored 100 points twice in their last 10 and averaged a league-worst 90.6 points since December 7^th. Ty Lawson has struggled mightily since a hamstring injury earlier this month. Kenneth Faried has missed games with injury, but comes back tonight. On the other side, the Pelicans can’t stop anybody, allowing 105.8 points a game this month. Anthony Davis seems to be getting readjusted after missing just seven games with a broken hand (wait, what???). His presence should help New Orleans’s defense get back on track.
• Los Angeles @ Utah 9 pm The Lakers played valiantly on Christmas day, leading the defending champions by 10 points before losing by six. Pau Gasol, who played great in that game, will miss tonight’s game with an upper respiratory infection. Watch out for Nick Young, though. Swaggy P is shooting 50% from three over his last six and it’s Swaggy P so at any point he make the most amazing shot you’ve ever seen or get stabbed by Kobe Bryant for missing a crazy shot. The Jazz go as Trey Burke goes. He’s been splendid so far, but he is inconsistent.
• Miami @ Sacramento 10 pm The Heat play the first game of a back-to-back tonight so don’t expect Dwyane Wade to play. Ray Allen and Michael Beasley will try to pick up the scoring load if Wade is sidelined as they have all year. While this is a mismatch on paper, three of Miami’s four have come against teams under .500 and the Kings could pull this one out. The Heat don’t really have an answer for Boogie Cousins so anticipate a big game from him.
• Phoenix @ Golden State 10:30 pm
  

  Stephen Curry and Warriors going up against Eric Bledsoe’s Suns is tonight’s best matchup.

  The last game of the night is the best game of the night. The Suns are on a tear lately, winning seven of their last eight to take over second place in the Pacific Division. They beat the Warriors on December 15^th. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson going up against Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic is tantalizing, especially after the four of them combined for 94 points last time. This one will go down to the wire, maybe even overtime. 

The One-Year Plan: Sacramento Kings

The Kings have some of the league’s best fans who have suffered through one of the worst half-decades in team history

For the last 5 years, I’ve asked Santa for three things: a date with Selena Gomez, the ability to apparate, and a NBA team to run. This year like the last 4, Santa didn’t come through. I’m sure the big man has his doubts about my qualifications to GM a franchise so I’m going to prove to him that I got what it takes. One-by-one, I’m going to create a plan for each NBA team in distress. The plans are for the next calendar year and hopefully put the team in the best position for long term success. As for the other two wishes, I got no excuse for Santa Claus. He’s gotta make it happen at some point. 

The Kings of Sacramento have been anything but royal this last half-decade. They haven’t played a postseason game since 2006. They haven’t finished above .500 since that season and the team won 35 games or more just once in that span(a 38-44 campaign in 2007). Since firing Rick Adelman before the 2006-07 season, the Kings employed six head coaches including the immortal Kenny Natt who went 11-47 in 2008. But, things are looking up in a few ways for Kings fans. After almost moving to Seattle last season, the NBA owners voted to keep the team in Sacramento. Following the vote, the Maloof brothers finally sold the team to Vivek Ranadive.

Vivek Ranadive saved the Kings from moving to Seattle, now he’s working on building a winning franchise

Vivek already has plans in place for a new stadium and is trying to change the culture in SacTown. He brought in Pete D’Alessandro, a former disciple of the Masai-ah from Denver, as the Kings GM. Mike Malone took over the head coaching position. In 2012, NBA GMs voted Malone as the league’s best head coach. D’Alessandro promised moves and delivered almost immediately by getting Greivis Vasquez in a sign-and-trade for Tyreke Evans. He then picked up Luc Mbah a Moute for two second round picks before the season. He then turned those two into Derrick Williams, an elite player in college struggling to find a spot in the NBA. D’Alessandro dealt with his former boss in Denver and brought Rudy Gay over from Toronto in a seven player deal. Despite all the changes and new faces, the Kings look pretty much the same. They’re second-to-last in the West at 8-19, have the league’s second worst defense(thank God for the Knicks), and team chemistry is at an all time low. In fact, the only stat they lead the league in is calling each other out. I expect even more big changes this year for Sacramento, so without futher ado here’s the plan for the Kings to have long term potential by next Christmas.

Step 1: Be terrible in 2013. The only thing the Kings have succeeded in this season is losing. So just keep on, keeping on Sacramento. Realistically, the Kings have no shot at a playoff spot in the incredibly strong Western Conference. As much as the league wants to get rid of tanking, it’s a great strategy to get superstars and the Kings don’t need to do anything to implement it. Also, the Kings need to be truly awful to ensure they get their pick. Back in 2011, Sacramento traded a first round pick in one of the best drafts in recent memory for JJ Hickson. The pick is top 12 protected, which means the Kings need to finish in the league’s bottom 10 to ensure the pick.

Step 2: Figure out if you can build around Boogie. If you’re going to be awful for a season, don’t waste the entire year. The Kings need to experiment with this roster and find out who they’re keeping for the long term. Demarcus Cousins is the most secure King as he just signed a 4-year, $62 million extension. He’s posting career highs in shooting percentage(49.5%), assists(3.1), and points(22.5). The 23-year old is developing into an offensive load in the post and could be turn into the league’s best offensive center by year’s end.

Is this really the Kings’ franchise cornerstone? In short, yes.

But, Boogie doesn’t seem very interested in protecting the rim or playing defense in general. He allows opponents to shoot 53% at the rim, which puts him in the bottom 20 of that category according to NBA.com. He leads the league in both personal fouls per game and technical fouls. Cousins’s reputation as a headcase is probably contributing to the tech numbers and will only worsen if he doesn’t turn it around. He also seems like an awful person to play with. So is this a guy you want to build your franchise around? Honestly, Boogie is the Kings’ best option right now so the answer is yes. As for everyone else, The Kings probably only want to keep Isaiah Thomas(depending on how much he’ll cost this summer) and Ben McLemore. Derrick Williams is an interesting prospect, but outside of one 31-point performance, he’s been uninspiring.

Step 3: Solve the Rudy Gay problem. The Kings are stuck with Rudy Gay, whether they want him or not. He’s under contract for the next two years, raking in $37.1 million in that time or just a shade under the entire GDP of Tuvalu. Gay has suffered a rough couple of years. The explosion of advanced stats and his overall decline have landed him on his third team in two seasons. Gay bottomed out in Toronto this season and his efficiency dropped to an all time low. But as Tom Ziller pointed out when the trade happened, Gay’s efficiency fell as his usage rate went up in Memphis and Toronto. The Kings, already loaded with high usage players, might provide the right situation for Gay. They need to use Gay’s isolation talents later in possessions, rather than relying on him to initiate the offense. He should get the ball as a second option if the first offensive set breaks down. So far with the Kings, Gay has taken five less shots a game and is shooting 46%, up from 39% in Toronto. Maybe, Rudy Gay will finally become an efficient player in Sacramento. No really, stop laughing.

Step 4: Preach patience and shed salary. The Kings have just over $7 million coming off the books this summer. But, Boogie’s raise pretty much wipes that out. Rudy Gay is still under contract through next season. Carl Landry and Jason Thompson come back at the same price for the next four years. Travis Outlaw enters the last year of his deal as does Marcus Thornton. Isaiah Thomas will get a huge pay raise this summer, whether in Sacramento or not. All-in-all, the Kings won’t have much cap flexibility until next summer. So, they have to do what bad teams have done since the dawn of time: tell their fans to be patience. Success doesn’t happen overnight, unless you’re the Heat or Kim Kardashian. They can look at trade possibilities for Thomas if they want as much cap room as possible. But, I don’t think they can get the right value for him.

Boogie and Kings may not be happy now, but the future could be bright in SacTown

The Kings are a mess right now. But, D’Alessandro and Malone can sort through the rubble of offensive wing players to create a functional NBA team. This summer, they need to find a rim-protecting big man to pair with Boogie and a veteran presence in the locker room. Emeka Okafor and Jordan Hill are the two free agents that most fit that description. This time next year, I expect the Kings will still be struggling to win games. The contracts they’re under just make a one-year rebuild impossible. But if they get improvements from Rudy Gay, the Kings can flip Gay’s expiring contract for assets or picks. Overall, the Kings need two more years to reach their goals. Drafting a star this June and finding help defensively this summer can move them forward. With this management group in place and the salary cap space coming in 2015, make sure you use up all your Kings jokes now.